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Cameco (TSX:CCO) Restarts Cigar Lake, Is The Stock Still Cheap?

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Why the Cigar Lake restart matters for Cameco investors

Cameco (TSX:CCO) has restarted production at its Cigar Lake uranium mine after a brief suspension tied to processing issues at the partner operated McClean Lake mill, with shipments and its 2026 output outlook unchanged.

This removes a recent operational question mark around a key asset and shifts the focus back to how Cameco’s broader uranium and fuel services business might respond if production at Cigar Lake continues to run in line with the company’s stated plans.

See our latest analysis for Cameco.

Cameco’s share price has pulled back in recent months, with a 1 month share price return of down 14.8% and a 3 month share price return of down 22.6%. However, the 5 year total shareholder return is very large, which suggests long term holders have still seen substantial gains even as momentum has cooled around events such as the Cigar Lake suspension and restart.

If this Cigar Lake update has you thinking about where the next uranium related opportunity might come from, it could be worth reviewing our nuclear energy infrastructure stocks screener as a starting point, including the 90 nuclear energy infrastructure stocks.

Bulls see Cameco’s pullback as a reset after a resolved Cigar Lake scare, while bears view it as overdue cooling after a very large 5 year run. Which side does the current valuation evidence support next?

Most Popular Narrative: 28.4% Undervalued

The most followed narrative currently places Cameco’s fair value at CA$178.28, well above the last close of CA$127.69, which frames the recent pullback in a very different light for investors tracking long term uranium demand.

Cameco stands to benefit from a global wave of new nuclear construction, driven by heightened government policy support, net-zero emission mandates, and growing energy security concerns. These factors are seen as likely to accelerate demand for uranium and nuclear fuel, with a direct impact on long-term revenues.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what justifies paying up for Cameco even after strong multi year returns? The narrative focuses on rising earnings power, wider margins and a premium future profit multiple usually associated with faster growing sectors, all tied to specific uranium and reactor build assumptions that are not yet fully reflected in current guidance.

Result: Fair Value of CA$178.28 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this Cameco narrative still hinges on new reactor projects moving ahead as expected and on uranium contracting picking up. Any sustained delays could potentially challenge today’s assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this Cameco narrative.

Another view on Cameco’s valuation

While the analyst narrative points to Cameco trading about 28.4% below a CA$178.28 fair value, the earnings based lens tells a different story. At a P/E of 85.5x versus around 24x for both the Canadian Oil and Gas industry and peers, and a fair ratio of 28.7x, the stock looks expensive. Is this premium simply the price of the uranium growth story, or a valuation risk if expectations cool?

Investors who lean on earnings multiples rather than narratives may want to see exactly how this price stacks up against the underlying numbers, and what would need to change for the market to move closer to that fair ratio, See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown..

TSX:CCO P/E Ratio as at Jul 2026
TSX:CCO P/E Ratio as at Jul 2026

Next Steps

Given the mix of optimism and caution around Cameco, it makes sense to review the underlying data yourself and decide how compelling the story really is, starting with the 3 key rewards.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Cameco?

If you are focused on Cameco today, do not stop there. Widening your search across quality stock ideas can help you spot opportunities others might overlook.

  • Target potential mispricings by scanning a curated set of 6 high quality undervalued stocks that pair solid fundamentals with pricing that may not fully reflect their underlying business strength.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.