Cinda Securities: Two-wheeler brands compete to enter the entire industry chain, focusing on leading companies with improved potential and intelligent evolution on the production side and channel side

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cinda Securities released a research report saying that 26 is the first full year since switching to the new national standard, and the external environment of the domestic electric two-wheeler industry is facing various complex changes such as policies and consumer trends. The bank believes that the market share of leading companies is expected to continue to increase and achieve steady development. In the long run, in addition to optimizing the industry pattern, with technological progress and consumer awakening, the growth of electric motorcycle sales and the evolution of intelligent demand are expected to create structural growth opportunities, and overseas markets such as Europe, America, and Southeast Asia also have considerable room for penetration in the future.

Cinda Securities's main views are as follows:

Production side: leading brand manufacturers control themselves to further build competitive barriers

(1) Vehicle production: In recent years, electric two-wheeler head brands have actively promoted the layout of their own bases at home and abroad, and Yadi and Emma's “Electric Bicycle Industry Specification Conditions” and “White List” companies are clearly leading. Judging from the assembly time, Yadi, Emma, and Luyuan are relatively fast in terms of production efficiency, and the 9th is also improving as the layout of their own factories continues; in terms of bicycle transportation and travel expenses, No. 9's performance is superior to Yadi and Emma, demonstrating the level of refined operation, but Yadi and Emma generate better income per capita, reflecting the industry's manpower scale advantage. (2) Core components: The component that accounts for the highest cost among the three batteries is the battery. According to estimates, ordinary lead-acid batteries account for about 25%-30% of the bicycle cost, followed by the motor, which accounts for about 15% to 20%, and the electronic control system accounts for about 5%. Judging from the independent supply situation of Sandian's core components, there are obvious differences in the depth of the layout and areas of focus. Yadi and Emma, which have both the operating time and scale effects of the supply chain, have a high degree of independent supply. Yadi is the most comprehensive. All three have a layout and outstanding battery components. Emma is more prominent in terms of motor components; Luyuan has built an independent supply advantage around self-developed liquid-cooled electric units.

Product side: integration of government and demand, all-round evolution of electric two-wheelers

In terms of product parameters, electric motorcycles are stricter than electric motorcycles. In terms of driving requirements, the electric motorcycle threshold is significantly higher than that of electric motorcycles. Currently, electric motorcycles are still prohibited in some regions of our country, but overall, the degree of policy friendliness is gradually increasing. Compared with each brand's product matrices, brand positioning determines differences in product strategy. The overall price band of traditional brands such as Yadi and Emma is lower than that of new power brands such as No. 9, but the brand layout is not clearly differentiated, and competition by price segment continues to deepen. Traditional brands such as Yadi, Emma, and Luyuan are attacking No. 9 in the middle and high-end, while No. 9 relies on differentiated competitive advantages to expand the price band downward as appropriate. In terms of intelligence, judging from user reviews, the new power brands have more intelligent functions and higher accuracy, and the No. 9 OS system continues to lead the industry. The bank expects that the level of intelligence of traditional brands will continue to rise rapidly in '26, narrowing the gap with new brands, while leading brands as a whole are expected to continue to expand the leading edge of smaller and medium-sized brands.

Channel side: The distribution system is becoming mature, and omni-channel integration opens up ideas

The demand for China's electric two-wheeler industry is huge and scattered, and the per capita ownership continues to rise. Offline channels are the core gripper for industry enterprises to achieve sales, but China's demand market characteristics force brands to build distribution systems (that is, brand manufacturers - one network dealers - two network dealers - two network dealer system). Looking at the industry value chain, the proportion of brand manufacturers and second network dealers is high. Weak profits of first network dealers and test comprehensive capabilities. In the future, we need to pay attention to ecological values, such as integrating and guiding the channel towards the Internet model and intelligent progress, to cooperate with brand manufacturers to participate deeply in relevant network policies Landing etc., 2 Based on the single-store model, online dealers focus on high-quality sales and after-sales value-added services. Compared with various brands, the business model of traditional brand 2 network dealers needs to be reshaped urgently, while new power brand 2 network dealers may face friction under the channel encryption trend, there is room for further optimization and improvement. The bank believes that digitalization will be the direction of channel development in the future. New power brands such as No. 9 are relatively leading, while traditional brands still have room for improvement in terms of closed loop and degree of integration.

Consumer side: demand diversified development, user mentality drives product upgrades

(1) Basic user profile: Among electric two-wheeler users in China, the proportion of men and women is relatively balanced, with people aged 26-35 accounting for the highest proportion. The urban market accounts for the main share. Overall, the usage scenarios of electric two-wheeler users in China are biased towards everyday life. (2) Usage scenarios & reasons for buying a car: Commuting is the core requirement of users. The attributes required are outstanding. A small number of them emphasize personalized leisure trips and social visits. The main reasons for buying a car point to the characteristics of electric two-wheelers that are easy to use and have good mobility. (3) Car purchase price band & content focus: China's electric two-wheeler price band is on the rise. Users place more importance on technology and configuration specifications, followed by product warranty and after-sales service. Intelligent functions have become one of the core concerns in car purchase decisions. In terms of brand marketing, in users' minds, the brand label focuses on “new”, and traditional brands focus on “stability”. From the female perspective provided by Xiaohongshu, electric two-wheeler brand competition is shifting from parameter competition to synergy between appearance, intelligence, safety, and long-term quality to define user mentality.

Industry trends: comprehensive support such as scale and technology to increase the market share of leading brands

Electric two-wheeler purchases value offline experience. The competitive characteristics of industry channels are king. Racecourse is the early core strategy of traditional brands. In recent years, the mass market has basically completed channel coverage, and the competitive advantage of leading brands is remarkable. The future will focus on pattern optimization driven by internal competition and external policies. By clearing out long-tail manufacturers, market share can be concentrated at the head. The first competitive gripper is the deepening of the supply chain layout, and the superposition of scale effects highlights cost advantages. The second is to empower terminal channels to optimize dealer profit models, improve single-store efficiency, and attract flops. Systematic ability, that is, a comprehensive shift to Competence-based competition centered on technology, brand, and ecology. In the middle and high-end market, the overall market is dominated by demand trends. Brand manufacturers need to renew their brand image, provide two-wheeled electric vehicle products with a sense of design and personalized characteristics to meet the needs of young customers; provide group purchase solutions to industry customers, focus on delivery scenarios, and accurately respond to professional battery life and power requirements; and seize multi-dimensional differentiated competition opportunities such as intelligent technology research and development, driving experience optimization, and individual demand satisfaction.

Risk factors: weak consumption, policy-related risks, increased industry competition, new product promotion falling short of expectations, errors in profit forecasting and data estimates