Central Plains Real Estate: In the first half of the year, luxury property transactions in the South Hilltop district reached a record high, first-hand luxury property prices are expected to rise steadily by 5%-10%

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Ho Siu-tong, senior sales director of Zhongyuan Real Estate's Hilltop South District, Hong Kong Island South Coast, Discovery Bay and Islands District, said that first-hand luxury property prices are expected to rise steadily by about 5%-10%. The second-hand villa market, on the other hand, is expected to remain stable, mainly because the current market still has plenty of properties for sale and the pace of digestion is relatively slow. Combined, owners have only slightly narrowed the bargaining space, and prices lack significant upward momentum in the short term. In addition, mainland buyers are more inclined to buy first-hand brand new luxury villas. Some buyers are gradually switching from traditional villas to large flat mansions due to changes in the family structure, which also keeps second-hand villa price expectations stable.

Ho Siu-tong added that currently second-hand villas generally have problems such as old housing, no elevator configuration, and small interior space. Mainland customers are more sensitive to this. In particular, the two major factors of “no elevator” and “old house” affect their willingness to buy.

In terms of the rental market, it is expected that the rental market will remain active in the second half of the year, benefiting from the tight supply of luxury rental housing, combined with the return of foreign-funded enterprises and active visits by mainland companies to set up branches in Hong Kong. Judging from the current rent distribution, market demand is gradually tilting towards middle and high-end prices, and it is expected that large luxury property rents will have stronger upward momentum.

In the first half of 2026, Hilltop Southern District recorded a total of 121 second-hand luxury property transactions, a sharp increase of 72.9% from 70 in the same period in 2025, a record high of nearly five years since the first half of 2021 (126 cases); the transaction amount reached HK$15.138 billion, surging 165.2% from HK$5.709 billion in the same period last year, a record high of nearly eight years since the first half of 2018 (HK$21.28 billion).

Ho Siu-tong pointed out that the sources of buyers in the region tend to be diversified and internationalized; mainland buyers are still the main force, accounting for about 70%; local buyers account for about 20%. It is worth noting that due to geographical conflicts and fluctuations in peripheral financial markets, the attractiveness of Hong Kong properties as safe-haven assets has increased, and European capital has also returned to the market, accounting for about 10%.

Regarding the impact of the recent new regulations on the compliance management of cross-border funds, Ho Siu-tong said that most clients' funds have been deposited in Hong Kong for many years. The new policy may have some impact on new capital, but the overall share is small.

Yang Mingyi, senior co-director of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Department, said that the number and value of luxury property transactions over HK$100 million increased by 32.7% and 28.6% respectively in the first half of the year, both higher than 22.3% and 22.2% in the range of HK$5.1 million to HK$100 million. She pointed out that although the government has raised stamp duty on residential properties by more than HK$100 million, high-quality luxury homes are scarce, and the popularity of large high-end properties among wealthy buyers has not abated, and transaction momentum has not been clearly suppressed.

A total of 83 first-hand luxury homes worth HK$100 million or more were recorded in the first half of the year, involving an amount of HK$14.995 billion, an increase of 23.9% and 12.8% over the first half year, reaching 85.6% and 76.0% of the full year of 2025. During the same period, 231 first-hand transactions of HK$510,000 to HK$100 million were recorded, with a turnover of HK$15.634 billion, an increase of 11.6% and 10.6% over the previous half year, which is only equivalent to 59.1% and 57.2% for the full year of last year. As a result, the proportion of units over HK$100 million in first-hand transactions of HK$50 million or more rose to 26%, a record high of two and a half years, while the share in the HK$5 million to HK$100 million range fell to 74%.

In the second-hand market, 51 second-hand transactions of HK$100 million or more were recorded in the first half of the year, with a turnover of HK$12.821 billion, up 50.0% and 53.6% over the first half year, reaching 68.9% and 71.4% of the full year of 2025 (74 cases and HK$17.957 billion), respectively. Second-hand transactions of HK$5 million to HK$100 million were recorded, with a turnover of HK$9.270 billion, an increase of 45.7% and 48.5% over the previous year, reaching 72.5% and 75.2% of the full year of last year (189 cases, HK$12.321 billion). Second-hand transactions in the two price ranges increased similarly, so the share of second-hand transactions over HK$50 million remained stable, 73% in the HK$5.1 million to HK$100 million range, and 27% above HK$100 million.