Huachuang Securities: New energy is still the core direction of the 15th Five-Year Plan, and the electricity market mechanism is expected to be further improved
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report saying that based on the policy direction of the “15th Five-Year Plan” plan, four investment logics have been sorted out: 1) New energy: increased certainty in installed capacity, consumption improvement and superposition of green license premiums to open up revenue elasticity; 2) Thermal power: diversified revenue structure to “electricity+capacity+auxiliary services”, increasing profit certainty; 3) Hydropower: steady cash flow combined with integrated long-term growth of water, landscape and tiles; 4) Nuclear power: stable cash flow combined with integrated long-term growth of water, landscape and tiles in 2030; 4) Nuclear power: the target of 110 billion dollars of installed capacity in 2030 This is a significant increase compared to 2025, and the certainty of growth is high.
The main views of Huachuang Securities are as follows:
14th Five-Year vs Fifteen Five-Year Plan: How is the top-level narrative of building a new energy system evolving?
1. Energy security: From macro-setting to implementation gripper, the content expands in depth. The expression of the 14th Five-Year Plan is a macro-narrative of “strengthening bottom-line thinking and multiple guarantees.” “Establishing a firm energy strategic security bottom line under extreme circumstances” was added to the overall requirements of the 15th Five-Year Plan. For the first time, coal reserves set a quantitative target of “forming a production capacity reserve of 100 million tons/year by 2030”. The connotation of energy security extends further upstream in the industrial chain as the share of new energy sources increases.
2. New energy development: Tuning has been improved, and flexibility construction has been comprehensively quantified. The new energy statement moved to the second chapter. The plan mentions that more than 50% of the installed power generation in the 15th Five-Year Plan became the main source of electricity, and 50% of the electricity generated by non-fossil energy became the main source of electricity. Flexible resources have achieved a leap from qualitative guidance to quantitative assessment, such as saving 160 million kilowatts of the 2030 target, 300 million kilowatts of new energy storage, and 50 million kilowatts of virtual power plant regulation capacity, increasing source storage regulation capacity by more than 40%.
3. Energy consumption: Independent regulation, construction or acceleration of a green attribute pricing mechanism. “Establishing a green and low-carbon energy consumption system” was listed as a separate chapter 4 in the 15th Five-Year Plan. The statement on the carbon management system was upgraded to “fully implement a dual carbon emission control system”. The new enhanced green certification system was combined with voluntary consumption, and “enhancing the international recognition of green certificates” was proposed for the first time, creating a solid institutional foundation for increasing green premiums.
Judging from the “15th Five-Year Plan” plan, what will be done in the next few years?
1. New energy is still one of the core directions of the 15th Five-Year Plan. The dominant position of new energy sources has been established, and a multi-dimensional index system has been fully implemented. By 2030, the total installed capacity of electricity will increase to 5.4 billion kilowatts, and the share of non-fossil energy consumption will increase to 25%. The plan differentiates between new energy, thermal power, hydropower, and nuclear power: the focus is on consumption of new energy, the transformation of thermal power to a regulated power source and supporting capacity compensation and auxiliary service mechanisms, and hydropower and nuclear power enter the market smoothly. Key projects have been fully implemented to specific geographical names and time points, and hydrogen energy, green fuel, and green power are directly connected to two new energy consumption directions.
2. The tone of flexibility exceeds expectations. From qualitative planning to quantitative assessment, four major directions are collaborative expansion. The thermal power transformation focuses on deep peak shifting and rapid slope climbing capability; for the first time, pumping, new energy storage, and load-side management all set clear quantitative targets for 2030. The four major directions jointly support the systemic requirement of increasing source storage regulation capacity by more than 40%, and the enforceability of flexible construction policies has been significantly enhanced.
3. Green energy consumption is a separate chapter, and the 15th Five-Year Renewable Energy Green Premium is expected to move from expectations to reality. On the supply side, the dual control of carbon emissions and the construction of a carbon market go hand in hand; on the demand side, the improvement of the consumer responsibility weight system and the expansion of emerging scenarios such as zero-carbon parks and direct green power connections form demand acceptance. Overall, the tightening of quotas, the internationalization of green certificates, and the expansion of scenarios together form the institutional foundation for the gradual increase in green premiums.
4. The market mechanism has moved from pilot to official operation, and the market mechanism is expected to be further improved. The overall goal was upgraded from “speeding up construction” to “basic construction”. The provincial spot market and the southern regional market were clearly put into full operation. The capacity market was integrated into the system for the first time, and gas-water nuclear power steadily entered the market. “Continuing to rectify improper interference in the electricity market by local governments” is clearly included in the plan, and the statement is more substantial.
Risk warning: Electricity market-based reforms have fallen short of expectations; the sharp rise in coal prices has exceeded expectations; dry incoming water affects hydropower output; the approval progress of nuclear power projects falls short of expectations; and the pace of implementation of the green license pricing mechanism is uncertain.