Zhongtai Securities E-commerce Express Delivery Industry Mid-Term Strategy: In-house Profit Expansion and Growth

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zhongtai Securities released a research report saying that it will seize e-commerce express repairs and make money to grow. It is recommended to focus on two main lines of investment: 1) Benefiting from the industry's “anti-domestic back-up” price support and the reduction of corporate digital costs, domestic e-commerce express delivery ushered in a period of profit recovery, steady optimization of the recommended pattern and flexible targets for performance improvement. 2) Overseas e-commerce markets such as Southeast Asia and Latin America are booming, cross-border e-commerce is opening up incremental space, and enterprises with global fulfillment networks have stronger growth attributes.

The main views of Zhongtai Securities are as follows:

Requirements: Excellent quality and toughness, low front and high back

1) The growth rate has changed but the structure has been optimized: Since the second half of 2025, due to factors such as the continuous promotion of “anti-internal circulation” of express delivery and stricter e-commerce compliance requirements, special offers and single items have gradually been cleared. At the same time, the volume “squeezes moisture”, forcing structural optimization, and the industry has entered a new stage of high-quality development. 2) Online consumption is relatively resilient: From January to May 2026, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of online retail sales exceeded the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods by 3.6 percentage points; at the same time, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of live e-commerce retail sales was 0.2 percentage points faster than in January-April, and new business formats and models continued to provide growth impetus for logistics demand. 3) The annual trend may be “low before and after high”: From January to May 2026, the national express delivery business volume increased by 5.2% year on year; looking ahead, as the high base effect gradually weakens, the industry volume growth rate is expected to gradually rise steadily, and it is still expected to achieve high single-digit growth throughout the year.

Price: Regulatory escort, return to rationality

1) Remediating “internal roll” competition continues to advance: From June 29 to July 2, Liao Jinrong, a member of the party group and deputy director of the State Post Office, led a research team to Shanghai and visited the headquarters of express delivery companies, emphasizing the continued deepening of “internal roll” competition; at the same time, the “Guangdong Express Delivery Regulations” came into effect on July 1, clearly “focusing on breaking down “internal roll” competition, requiring express delivery operators not to provide services below cost without justifiable reasons.” 2) Increased employment compliance costs or forced price repairs: The “New Social Security Regulations” implemented in September 2025 make it clear that any “non-payment of social security” agreements are invalid; in February 2026, seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Affairs carried out employment administration guidance for express delivery companies to protect the rights and interests of workers in new forms of employment. With the gradual implementation of social security payment policies for couriers, rigid labor costs in the industry will rise significantly. Referring to the path of smooth transmission of fuel costs, the new compliance costs are expected to be transmitted to terminal prices. 3) Expected upward trend for the whole year: From January to May 2026, the average single ticket revenue of the industry was about 7.67 yuan, an increase of about 1.9% over the previous year; looking ahead, industry regulation is expected to support off-season prices, and the annual price center is expected to rise year-on-year.

Cost: based on scale, digital intelligence to improve efficiency

1) Transit process: Benefiting from better economies of scale, optimization of loading rates, and improvements in the level of automation, in 2026, Zhongtong Express/Yuantong Express achieved single ticket cost optimization in the two core processes of trunk line transportation and transit sorting. The core cost of a single ticket was -0.06/-0.04 yuan, respectively. Looking ahead, as the operation and management system of express delivery companies continues to improve, there is still some room for cost reduction in the transit process at the headquarters. 2) End link: Related costs account for a relatively high proportion of total link costs, and the “optimization and innovation” of outlets has become the focus. As automation and unmanned initiatives continue to advance, it is expected that there is more room for subsequent cost optimization. In the franchisee express delivery model, terminal equipment investment and optimization costs are borne by franchisees. Therefore, the application progress and cost reduction results of new products and technologies are closely related to the operating conditions and degree of cooperation of the network, and leading enterprises with better network conditions and more empowered capabilities are superior.

Risk warning: risk of industry policy changes, risk of demand growth falling short of expectations, risk of vicious price competition, risk of cost reduction and efficiency falling short of expectations, risk of trustworthiness of third party data, risk of untimely usage information and data updates