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Almonty Industries (TSX:AII) Starts Sangdong Processing, Is It Still 63% Below Fair Value?

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Almonty Industries (TSX:AII) is back on investors’ radar after two linked developments at its Sangdong Mine: the start of processing operations and a significantly extended tungsten offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders.

See our latest analysis for Almonty Industries.

Despite a recent pullback, including a 10.34% decline in the 30 day share price return and a 23.06% fall over 90 days, Almonty Industries still shows strong momentum with an 84.46% year to date share price return and a very large 1 year total shareholder return. This suggests investors are reassessing both growth potential and risk as Sangdong moves into production and the extended offtake agreement takes effect.

If Sangdong’s progress has you looking more closely at critical materials, this is a good moment to widen your search with our 30 best rare earth metal stocks

Almonty Industries now has a long-life tungsten contract and a newly producing mine, yet the stock has already delivered a very large 1 year return. Does the current share price still leave room for attractive value?

Almonty Industries valuation: what does the DCF say?

On Simply Wall St’s numbers, Almonty Industries is trading at a steep discount to an estimated future cash flow value. The SWS DCF model points to a fair value of about CA$60.09 per share, versus the last close of CA$22.19, which implies Almonty is trading roughly 63.1% below that estimate.

The SWS DCF model projects the company’s future cash flows and then discounts them back to today using a required rate of return to estimate what those cash flows are worth in present terms. For a company like Almonty Industries, which is currently loss making but has forecasts of higher future earnings and revenue, a DCF can capture expectations that are not visible in current profits.

Given Almonty’s unprofitable status, high forecast revenue growth and the transition of Sangdong into production, the gap between the current CA$22.19 share price and the CA$60.09 model value highlights how much of the story rests on future execution. The stock is also trading about 24.3% below an analyst price target of CA$27.59. However, analyst views are not in a statistically tight range, so those targets come with more dispersion than usual.

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Result: DCF Fair value of CA$60.09 (UNDERVALUED)

However, Almonty Industries still carries clear risks, including its current net loss of CA$132.555 million and heavy reliance on tungsten revenue from a small set of projects.

Find out about the key risks to this Almonty Industries narrative.

Another view on Almonty Industries’ valuation

While the SWS DCF model suggests Almonty Industries is trading well below an estimated future cash flow value, the P/B ratio paints a more demanding picture. A P/B of 17.9x is far higher than the Canadian Metals and Mining industry average of 2.6x, even though it is below peer levels of 146.2x. That gap points to meaningful valuation risk if expectations around Sangdong or future earnings do not play out as implied.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

TSX:AII P/B Ratio as at Jul 2026
TSX:AII P/B Ratio as at Jul 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Almonty Industries for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 5 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With Almonty Industries presenting both clear risks and meaningful potential rewards, this is a moment to look closely at the underlying data and move decisively on your own view by checking the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Almonty Industries?

If Almonty Industries has sharpened your focus on where to put fresh capital to work, do not stop here. The next opportunity could be hiding in plain sight.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.