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First Majestic Silver (TSX:AG) Lifts 2026 Guidance, Is The Stock Still Cheap?

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

First Majestic Silver (TSX:AG) has drawn fresh attention after raising its 2026 consolidated production guidance, reporting higher year on year Q2 output, and advancing permitting and construction plans at its Santa Elena mine in Mexico.

See our latest analysis for First Majestic Silver.

Despite the stronger Q2 output and higher 2026 production guidance, First Majestic Silver’s share price has eased recently, with the stock down 21.72% on a 90 day share price return basis. However, its 1 year total shareholder return of 85.48% and 3 year total shareholder return of about 2.7x suggest momentum has been stronger over a longer horizon.

If you are looking beyond First Majestic Silver and want to see what else is moving in precious metals, this is a good time to review the 9 top silver producer stocks

First Majestic Silver has lifted its 2026 production guidance, yet the stock has pulled back sharply in recent months. The key question for investors is whether the current fundamentals, price and risk profile still tilt the balance in favour of buyers or not.

Most Popular Narrative: 39.7% Undervalued

Based on the most followed narrative, First Majestic Silver’s fair value of CA$38.50 sits well above the last close of CA$23.21. This frames a sizeable valuation gap that rests on ambitious growth and margin assumptions.

Robust year over year growth in silver production (up 76%) and record revenue (up 94%), combined with expanded exploration and accelerated mine development, position the company to capture higher sales volumes and benefit from potential increases in industrial and investment demand for silver, directly supporting future revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what sits behind that growth story? The narrative leans on aggressive top line expansion, a slimmer profit margin profile, and a rich future earnings multiple. Curious which assumptions really carry the fair value?

Result: Fair Value of CA$38.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the First Majestic Silver story also carries clear pressure points, including high ongoing exploration and development spending, as well as concentrated exposure to Mexico that could affect earnings stability.

Find out about the key risks to this First Majestic Silver narrative.

Another View on First Majestic Silver’s Valuation

While the popular narrative sees First Majestic Silver as 39.7% undervalued, the current P/E of 27.8x paints a different picture. It sits above the Canadian Metals and Mining industry at 14.3x, peers at 20.2x, and even the fair ratio of 18.8x, which points to valuation risk if expectations cool.

If earnings growth or sentiment softens, how much room is there for that multiple to compress before it lines up with the fair ratio investors might eventually focus on?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

TSX:AG P/E Ratio as at Jul 2026
TSX:AG P/E Ratio as at Jul 2026

Next Steps

With sentiment on First Majestic Silver clearly mixed, this is a moment to move quickly, review the data for yourself, and test the optimism that our work has highlighted through its 4 key rewards

Looking for more investment ideas beyond First Majestic Silver?

If First Majestic Silver has sharpened your focus on opportunities, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with targeted stock ideas tailored to different investing angles.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.