Goldman Sachs: Persian Gulf oil exports are highly uncertain in the short term, and pipeline transportation can be avoided in the long run

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Goldman Sachs released a research report saying that oil prices have recently risen due to the oil tanker attack and another clash between the US and Iran, highlighting that smooth shipping in the Strait of Hormuz will have a key impact on oil prices in the short term. However, in the long run, the bank estimates that the Middle East region will have sufficient pipeline transportation capacity to be added one after another. It is expected that by the end of 2027, the export volume of oil producers in the Persian Gulf will return to more than 45% of the pre-war level and return to more than 60% by the end of 2028, which will avoid any potential impact on the Strait of Hormuz in the future. Historical experience shows that pipeline construction plans in a single country in the Middle East can usually be completed relatively quickly.

At the height of the US-Iran war, the bank raised its long-term oil price forecast (that is, the price of three-year Brent futures) by 9 US dollars per barrel to 76 US dollars, mainly based on an increase in structural risk premiums. Recent attacks have highlighted that exports to the Persian Gulf are still highly uncertain, and if the situation heats up seriously, the risk that oil prices will rise again in the short term. However, if the pipeline transportation capacity that crosses the Strait of Hormuz is eventually expanded, it will pose a downside risk to the bank's long-term oil price estimates.