Nomura: The AI industry has yet to reach the peak of the cycle. China's AI value chain still has great potential for growth

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Teng Zhe'an, a semiconductor and technology analyst at Nomura Greater China, said that the AI industry recently experienced a correction in related stock prices, but the relevant correction is healthy. The market needs to absorb related risks, and believes that it has not reached the peak of the cycle yet, because the capital expenditure of large-scale cloud operators may further increase and extend to next year. Duan Bing, an analyst in China's technology and telecommunications industry at Nomura, believes that China's AI value chain still has great potential for growth because China's AI investment is still trying to catch up with the global market.

Teng Zhean believes that there is still room for further growth on the supply side, and that supply-side bottlenecks are likely to shift from tech giants to other smaller component, equipment and material manufacturers. Furthermore, rising prices and continued profit increases will remain the biggest catalyst. The bank will still buy on dips when the market is weak. Earlier, the bank raised its 2026 global AI server revenue forecast by 12% to reflect strong demand and higher average sales prices.

Duan Bing pointed out that potential improvements in the supply of AI chips in China, as well as more investment by large technology and internet companies, may support their profit and gross margin expansion in the second half of this year and next year. Therefore, the bank is also quite optimistic about leading companies in the supply chain of AI data centers in China.

Regarding Changxin Technology's reported listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 27, Teng Zhean said that if viewed from a fundamental point of view, the current supply situation in the memory chip cycle is in an unprecedented state of tension, and described it as probably one of the best and greatest stocks ever listed in China. He also believes that it will also be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the shortage of memory chips in the next few years, and may use this to expand its market share.