Raymond James reaffirms $800 target price: SpaceX (SPCX.US) 13th test flight is an “execution test” of investment logic

The Zhitong Finance App learned that SpaceX (SPCX.US) announced that it will conduct the 13th comprehensive flight test of the Starship (Starship) system as early as July 16. The mission is only about seven weeks past the 12th test flight on May 22, marking that the space exploration company has achieved a qualitative leap in the pace of launch — from 221 days between the 11th and 12th flights to about 55 days between the 12th and 13th flights, shortening the turnover period by about four times. The launch window is 90 minutes long and will open at 5:45 p.m. US Central Time on Thursday (6:45 a.m. on July 17, Beijing time). Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale described the mission as an “execution test” of the world's largest rocket system. He pointed out that whether Starship can be successfully put into regular operation is still critical to SpaceX's long-term investment prospects.

Gesuale believes SpaceX is speeding up test plans to increase launch frequency and shorten mission intervals. If the 13th flight were to launch as planned, it would mean turnaround time increased by about four times — which could indicate that the Starship is moving from an isolated R&D milestone to a more repeatable operating rhythm. This shift in pace is the core basis for Raymond James's target price of $800.

Moving from a “R&D milestone” to a “repeatable operating rhythm”

Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale described the mission as an “execution test” of the world's largest rocket system. He pointed out that whether Starship can be successfully put into regular operation is still critical to SpaceX's long-term investment prospects.

The 12th test flight was the first overall flight test of the new V3 version of the Starship, but many abnormalities occurred during the process. The biggest problem was that the “super heavy” booster failed to complete the planned return combustion after separation between stages, and eventually fell hard in the Gulf of Mexico. After investigation, SpaceX attributed the problem to the spacecraft side engine ignition timing causing the booster to flip and deviate about 90 degrees, which in turn caused the five Raptor engines to fail to ignite. In addition, a raptor engine also failed during the booster lift, and another engine failed on the spacecraft side.

In preparation for the 13th test flight, SpaceX has completed static ignition tests for 33 raptor engines and modified the engine start sequence to make it more robust against timing changes. The booster has also undergone hardware modifications to improve reignition reliability. The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announced the end of the accident investigation on July 13 and accepted SpaceX's investigation results and corrective measures. The incident report identified two major causes — thermal effects of propulsion system components during the ascent and incorrect engine alarm system settings — SpaceX has identified four corrective actions, including hardware and software configuration updates.

First deployment of 20 Starlink V3 satellites: from “simulation” to “actual combat”

The 13th test flight will be the first to carry 20 fully functional Starlink V3 satellites and test deployment. Quality simulators equipped only with V3 satellites have been launched several times before.

The V3 satellite is equipped with an advanced laser link for interplanetary communication, an array of expandable solar cells, and an onboard camera. Six of these satellites are equipped with cameras and will take images of the Starship's insulation cover during the flight for about an hour. After deployment, the satellite will deploy solar panels and antennas to try to connect to the South African ground station and other Starlink satellites. Since the satellite will be in the same suborbital trajectory as the starship, they will stay in space for about 20 minutes before being de-orbited and re-entering the atmosphere.

This deployment marks Starship's critical shift from a “test payload” to an “actual commercial mission.” SpaceX has deployed about 1,600 Starlink satellites in the first half of 2026, up from 1,489 in the first half of 2025.

The upgrade of the V3 satellite can be called a “generational transition.” The single-star communication capacity is 1 Tbps, which is more than 10 times that of V2. A single launch of 60 V3s can add 60 Tbps of total bandwidth capacity to the Starlink network. The capacity is about 40 times that of the Falcon 9 V2 Mini satellite. The uplink rate increased to 160 Gbps, 24 times that of V2. With inter-satellite laser communication links, network latency is expected to drop from the current 40-50 ms to less than 20 ms.

The physical size of the V3 satellite has also greatly expanded: the mass of a single star exceeds 2 tons, which is more than 3 times that of the V2 Mini; the solar panels have a wingspan of about 60 meters after unfolding, far exceeding the capacity limit of the Falcon 9 fairing. The 20 aircraft carried in this test flight is an early technical verification. The Starship can carry up to 60 when fully loaded. Six of these satellites have been specially modified and equipped with a camera system to photograph the Starship's insulation cover and send back images in real time.

Gesuale said that the continued progress of Starlink deployment, combined with a faster pace of launch, has enhanced the competitive advantage that SpaceX's business model relies on.

FAA Release and Investor Focus

After the FAA released it, SpaceX obtained permission to launch. The mission will continue to verify key technologies such as the V3 version of the Starship and its reusable use. The main goals include verifying reliable inter-stage separation, engine performance under multiple conditions, controlled re-entry, and re-ignition of a single Raptor engine in space and controlled splash in the Indian Ocean.

Raymond James reiterated SpaceX's “strong buy” rating and $800 target price. Gesuale said that the success criteria were whether the key anomalies of the 12th flight could be corrected — booster backward guidance issues, spacecraft side engine failure, and space engine reignition sequence.

Bernstein SocGen Group also reaffirmed its “outperforming the market” rating and maintained a target price of $239. Wall Street's judgment on SpaceX's valuation remains markedly divided. Currently, there are at least 13 analysts covering the company, and only one has a neutral position. Investors are now being asked to price SpaceX as an open market company rather than a private spectacle.

The differences between the two sides are: the bears believe that SpaceX is still a “demonstration company” with ambitious goals but lacks sustainable profitability; the bulls believe that Starship is no longer an isolated spectacle, but is moving towards a pace similar to that of commercial aviation. This is the core divide investors need to pay attention to. If Starships are becoming reusable, the open market can begin to view SpaceX more as an infrastructure than a rocket project; if not, the overvalued narrative will be harder to defend.

Prospects: A “critical leap forward” to orbit and Artemis

If the 13th test flight is successful, SpaceX may be able to test the Starship's first orbital launch during the next flight. The company is making every effort to advance Starship service to deploy the Starlink V3 satellite and use it as a lunar lander for NASA's Artemis lunar landing program.

If the 13th mission succeeds, SpaceX may be able to carry out the first orbital launch of the Starship during the next flight. SpaceX is working hard to advance the Starship's service to deploy the Starlink V3 satellite and as a lunar lander for NASA's Artemis lunar landing program. Musk also said earlier that this test flight will accumulate key data for the 14th test flight to achieve a “chopstick robotic maritime recycling rocket.”

This mission was also the first Starship test flight since SpaceX's IPO. Investors are evaluating the company's performance to measure whether its huge valuation is reasonable, and Starship's test flight performance has become one of the key factors in market judgment. The pace of launch is compressed from 221 days to 55 days. If the Starship can actually enter a state of repeatable, high-frequency operation, SpaceX's business model and valuation logic will face re-evaluation. The test flight on Thursday will be the most critical step in this process.