Earnings Miss: Sugi Holdings Co.,Ltd. Missed EPS By 11% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
Shareholders might have noticed that Sugi Holdings Co.,Ltd. (TSE:7649) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.5% to JP¥2,914 in the past week. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of JP¥270b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 11% to hit JP¥38.14 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Sugi HoldingsLtd from seven analysts is for revenues of JP¥1.09t in 2027. If met, it would imply an okay 5.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 6.7% to JP¥181. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥1.09t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥184 in 2027. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
See our latest analysis for Sugi HoldingsLtd
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥3,479. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Sugi HoldingsLtd analyst has a price target of JP¥3,800 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥3,160. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Sugi HoldingsLtd is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Sugi HoldingsLtd's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2027 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.7% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Sugi HoldingsLtd is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,479, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Sugi HoldingsLtd going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here..
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Sugi HoldingsLtd that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.