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Valmet Oyj (HLSE:VALMT) Wins Sun Paper Order As Undervalued Narrative Stays In Focus

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Valmet Oyj (HLSE:VALMT) has secured an order from Sun Paper to deliver a full board making line with automation and lifecycle services for a Nanning, China mill, highlighting contracted future equipment demand.

See our latest analysis for Valmet Oyj.

Despite the new Sun Paper contract and the upcoming half year results announcement, Valmet Oyj’s share price has fallen 16.7% over the past 90 days and the 1 year total shareholder return is down 16.6%, suggesting momentum has been weak recently.

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Valmet Oyj now trades well below both analyst targets and some intrinsic value estimates after its recent slide. The next step is to see whether that discount reflects real risk or a mispriced opportunity.

Most Popular Narrative: 25% Undervalued

Valmet Oyj's most followed narrative points to a fair value of about €28.33 per share compared with the latest close of €21.26. The market-implied discount stands out and raises clear questions about what is built into those assumptions.

The implementation of Valmet's new operating model, which simplifies structure and fosters faster decision-making and local accountability, is expected to drive recurring annual cost savings of around €80 million by early 2026. This structural catalyst should directly lower SG&A and COGS, supporting margin expansion and improved earnings over time.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of revenue growth, margin lift and profit multiple are baked into that fair value, and how they interact over time? The core of this narrative is a precise mix of modest top line assumptions, a sharper profitability profile and a specific earnings multiple that needs to hold. Curious which of those levers does most of the heavy lifting in the €28.33 figure, and how sensitive that outcome is to small changes in the model?

Result: Fair Value of €28.33 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the Valmet Oyj narrative still hinges on execution, as continued demand softness in pulp and paper and exposure to large, lumpy capital orders could easily unsettle the outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Valmet Oyj narrative.

Next Steps

Given the mixed tone around Valmet Oyj, with both concerns and optimism in play, it may be useful to review the underlying data promptly and form your own judgment using the 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Valmet Oyj?

If Valmet Oyj has sharpened your focus on opportunities and risk, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist now with carefully filtered ideas across different styles.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.