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Assessing Monarch Casino & Resort (MCRI) Valuation After Recent Share Price Momentum

Simply Wall St · 02/08 00:17

Monarch Casino & Resort stock overview

Monarch Casino & Resort (MCRI) has drawn investor attention after recent share price moves, with the stock last closing at $98.87 alongside solid trailing returns across the past year and the past 3 months.

See our latest analysis for Monarch Casino & Resort.

The recent 3.54% 1 day share price return and 8.02% 7 day share price return build on steadier gains over the past quarter. Over a 1 year period the total shareholder return is 16.58%, alongside a 5 year total shareholder return of 95.11%, indicating momentum that has developed over a longer horizon.

If Monarch Casino & Resort has you thinking about where else capital is moving, this is a good moment to look at 21 elite gold producer stocks as another way to broaden your watchlist.

With Monarch Casino & Resort trading at $98.87, an intrinsic value estimate suggesting a 46% discount, and a price target of $107.50, you have to ask: is this a genuine mispricing, or is the market already baking in future growth?

Price-to-earnings of 17.4x: Is it justified?

On earnings, Monarch Casino & Resort trades on a P/E of 17.4x, which sits below both its peer group on 26.6x and the broader US Hospitality average of 21x.

The P/E ratio compares the current share price with earnings per share, so you are effectively seeing how much investors are paying for each dollar of earnings. For a business like Monarch that owns and operates casino resort assets, earnings power and its consistency tend to matter more than rapid top line expansion.

Here, the current P/E of 17.4x is lower than the peer average of 26.6x. This suggests the market is putting a lower price on Monarch's earnings than on similar hospitality names. At the same time, the estimated fair P/E of 14.4x is below the current level. This highlights a gap the market could move toward if expectations cool.

Compared with the US Hospitality industry average P/E of 21x, Monarch again trades at a discount, which points to relatively cheaper earnings versus the sector even after factoring in that fair ratio check.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for Monarch Casino & Resort

Result: Price-to-earnings of 17.4x (UNDERVALUED)

However, you still need to weigh risks such as concentrated exposure to just two resort properties, as well as any shift in regional gaming or tourism demand.

Find out about the key risks to this Monarch Casino & Resort narrative.

Another view on Monarch Casino & Resort's value

The P/E comparison presents Monarch Casino & Resort as relatively inexpensive, and our DCF model is consistent with that perspective. On that view, the stock at $98.87 sits 46.3% below an estimated future cash flow value of $184.12, which is a much larger gap to consider.

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

MCRI Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026
MCRI Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Monarch Casino & Resort for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 53 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Monarch Casino & Resort Narrative

If this view does not fully line up with your own, or you would rather test the numbers yourself, you can quickly build a version that fits your thesis using Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Monarch Casino & Resort.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Monarch Casino & Resort has sharpened your focus, do not stop here, the market is full of other opportunities that could suit your style and goals.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.