Fumakilla Limited (TSE:4998) has announced that it will be increasing its dividend from last year's comparable payment on the 30th of June to ¥24.00. The payment will take the dividend yield to 2.1%, which is in line with the average for the industry.
We like a dividend to be consistent over the long term, so checking whether it is sustainable is important. Based on the last payment, Fumakilla was earning enough to cover the dividend, but free cash flows weren't positive. In general, we consider cash flow to be more important than earnings, so we would be cautious about relying on the sustainability of this dividend.
The next year is set to see EPS grow by 11.7%. If the dividend continues on this path, the payout ratio could be 17% by next year, which we think can be pretty sustainable going forward.
See our latest analysis for Fumakilla
Although the company has a long dividend history, it has been cut at least once in the last 10 years. The annual payment during the last 10 years was ¥16.00 in 2016, and the most recent fiscal year payment was ¥24.00. This implies that the company grew its distributions at a yearly rate of about 4.1% over that duration. Modest growth in the dividend is good to see, but we think this is offset by historical cuts to the payments. It is hard to live on a dividend income if the company's earnings are not consistent.
With a relatively unstable dividend, it's even more important to evaluate if earnings per share is growing, which could point to a growing dividend in the future. In the last five years, Fumakilla's earnings per share has shrunk at approximately 5.0% per annum. A modest decline in earnings isn't great, and it makes it quite unlikely that the dividend will grow in the future unless that trend can be reversed. It's not all bad news though, as the earnings are predicted to rise over the next 12 months - we would just be a bit cautious until this can turn into a longer term trend.
Overall, this is probably not a great income stock, even though the dividend is being raised at the moment. While the low payout ratio is a redeeming feature, this is offset by the minimal cash to cover the payments. This company is not in the top tier of income providing stocks.
It's important to note that companies having a consistent dividend policy will generate greater investor confidence than those having an erratic one. At the same time, there are other factors our readers should be conscious of before pouring capital into a stock. For example, we've picked out 1 warning sign for Fumakilla that investors should know about before committing capital to this stock. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.