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A Look At NMI Holdings (NMIH) Valuation After Recent Share Price Moves

Simply Wall St · 4d ago

Recent performance context

NMI Holdings (NMIH) has drawn attention after recent trading, with the share price closing at $39.88 and short-term returns mixed, including a one-day decline alongside a gain over the past month.

See our latest analysis for NMI Holdings.

While the 1 day share price return of a 1.21% decline and a softer 7 day move suggest momentum has cooled recently, the 30 day and 90 day share price returns of 6.92% and 11.30% respectively sit alongside a 1 year total shareholder return of 11.77%, pointing to gains that have built up over a longer holding period.

If NMI Holdings’ record has you reviewing other insurance and finance names, it can be a good moment to compare it with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as you scan for fresh ideas.

With NMI Holdings trading at $39.88 alongside an indicated intrinsic discount of around 61% and a 12% gap to analyst targets, investors may question whether this represents a value opportunity or whether the market is already incorporating expectations about future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 9.7% Undervalued

With NMI Holdings last closing at $39.88 against a narrative fair value of $44.14, the current price sits below the valuation that analysts are working with.

The company's commitment to technological advancements in underwriting, data analytics, and operational automation creates significant expense leverage, as seen in the record-low expense ratios, supporting long-term net margin expansion and improved operating efficiency.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady mid single digit revenue growth, margin shifts and a lower P/E than the wider sector still add up to a higher fair value? The earnings path and share count assumptions are doing heavy lifting in this story.

Result: Fair Value of $44.14 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the story could change if housing markets weaken or if new credit solutions and regulations reduce demand for traditional private mortgage insurance.

Find out about the key risks to this NMI Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own NMI Holdings Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or want to stress test your own assumptions, you can create a custom NMI Holdings story in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your NMI Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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If NMI Holdings has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with focused ideas that match how you like to invest.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.