Trump Has His Fed Chair Pick But Won't Tell Anyone—Here's What We Know

President Donald Trump told The New York Times he has decided on the next Federal Reserve Chair but won’t disclose the name, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said rate cuts are “the only ingredient missing” for stronger economic growth.

Trump Has Decision But Won’t Name His Pick

Trump said during a Wednesday night interview that he has a decision in mind but hasn’t discussed it with anyone. 

When asked about National Economic Council leader Kevin Hassett, Trump declined to comment but called Hassett “certainly one of the people that I like.”

Kalshi prediction markets show Kevin Warsh at 41%, Kevin Hassett at 39%, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller at 12% as top candidates. 

Bessent told reporters that Trump will decide in January.

Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May. Trump has stated whoever he nominates must immediately lower rates, making the selection critical for monetary policy direction in 2026.

Bessent Pushes Hard For More Rate Cuts

Bessent delivered a speech Thursday before the Economic Club of Minnesota calling for easier monetary policy. 

The Treasury Secretary said cutting interest rates is the only ingredient missing for even stronger economic growth and that the Fed should not delay.

However, a subsequent draft of the speech omitted that language and instead merely called on the Fed to “do its part to spur investment.” 

Bessent said the Fed needs an open mind, citing former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan’s resistance to premature rate hikes during the 1990s technology boom.

The Federal Reserve approved three consecutive rate cuts in late 2025, totaling 0.75 percentage points and taking rates down to a range of 3.5%-3.75%. The pace of cuts is expected to slow considerably in 2026.

Markets Price In Only Two Cuts For 2026

Markets currently price in just two rate cuts for 2026, with Fed officials’ most recent projections pointing to just one. 

Polymarket data shows a 27% chance the Fed will only lower rates by 25 basis points twice this year, a 22% chance of three cuts, and only a 17% chance of four cuts.

The disconnect between what the administration wants and what markets expect creates tension. While lower rates could support a slowing labor market, they also carry the threat of reigniting inflation.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran said in a Bloomberg TV interview that he wants 150 basis points of cuts this year to boost the labor market. 

Miran noted that underlying inflation is running at 2.3%, close to the Fed’s 2% target, and said they could add millions of jobs without causing inflation.

Miran’s term expires at the end of January, with the January FOMC meeting likely his last time directly influencing policy. Trump is expected to nominate the next Fed chair who will take over Miran’s seat.

What's Next

The incoming Fed Chair will determine whether the administration gets aggressive rate cuts or whether the Fed maintains a cautious approach. 

A dovish Fed Chair who delivers multiple rate cuts would likely support Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and risk assets by keeping liquidity conditions loose and weakening the dollar.

Hassett has said policymakers still have room to cut rates further, while Warsh takes a more hawkish stance on inflation.

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