WEBULL

A Look At Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) Valuation After Insider Sales And Key FDA Decision For Filspari

Simply Wall St · 3d ago

Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) has drawn fresh attention after insider share sales were disclosed just weeks before an FDA decision on a potential Filspari label expansion in focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, a rare kidney disease.

See our latest analysis for Travere Therapeutics.

At a share price of $36.28, Travere’s recent 1 day share price return of 1.34% comes after a 5.05% 7 day decline. The 90 day share price return of 39.16% and 1 year total shareholder return of 90.95% indicate that momentum has recently been building, despite a negative year to date share price return of 8.20%.

If Filspari’s upcoming FDA decision has you thinking about kidney disease treatments more broadly, it could be a good moment to scan other healthcare stocks for fresh ideas.

With shares up sharply over the past year and trading below the average analyst target, the real question now is whether Travere is still undervalued or if the FDA hopes and future growth are already priced in.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 12.9% Undervalued

With Travere trading at US$36.28 and the narrative fair value at about US$41.64, the valuation gap centers on how FILSPARI reshapes rare kidney care.

Expansion of FILSPARI's label to include treatment for FSGS, a rare kidney disease with no approved therapies, positions Travere for first-mover advantage in a large, underserved market. If approved, this will create a new, high-margin revenue stream and significantly expand the company's addressable market. (Revenue growth, gross margins)

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue curve and margin profile could support that higher fair value, and what profit multiple sits behind it? The full narrative lays out a detailed earnings ramp, shifting profitability, and a valuation framework that leans heavily on one therapy’s future performance.

The most followed narrative applies a 7.17% discount rate and ties fair value to expectations for strong revenue expansion, margin improvement and a higher future P/E multiple than the broader US biopharma peer group. It also assumes Travere grows into a much larger earnings base over the next few years, with share count increasing, which together support a higher equity value than today’s price.

Result: Fair Value of $41.64 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this hinges on FILSPARI avoiding regulatory setbacks in FSGS and on Travere managing heavy dependence on a single drug as competition and pricing pressure build.

Find out about the key risks to this Travere Therapeutics narrative.

Build Your Own Travere Therapeutics Narrative

If you see the story differently or simply prefer to test the numbers yourself, you can build your own view of Travere in just a few minutes by starting with Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Travere Therapeutics.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.