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Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) Valuation Check After Recent Share Price Momentum Rebound

Simply Wall St · 3d ago

Why Frontier Group Holdings is back on stock watchers’ radar

Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) has drawn investor attention after a mixed stretch in its share performance, with a loss over the past year contrasted by a gain in the past 3 months.

See our latest analysis for Frontier Group Holdings.

The recent 14.3% 90-day share price return, compared with a 1-year total shareholder return decline of about 42%, suggests that short-term momentum may be starting to rebuild after a difficult stretch.

If Frontier’s turbulence has you looking more broadly across airlines, it could be a good moment to scan other aerospace and defense stocks that might better fit your risk and return preferences.

With Frontier reporting US$3,729.0m in revenue but a US$137.0m net loss, and trading around US$4.73 with analysts targeting about US$5.44, you have to ask: is this a potential entry point, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 16.5% Undervalued

With the narrative fair value at US$5.67 versus the recent US$4.73 close, the story centres on whether future earnings can close that gap.

The expansion of premium product offerings (e.g., first-class seating, UpFront Plus), increased loyalty cardholder engagement, and enhanced ancillary service monetization are driving higher non-fare revenue per passenger, supporting both top-line growth and margin expansion over the medium term.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a low-fare carrier ends up with this valuation gap? The narrative leans on rising margins, faster revenue growth, and a future earnings multiple that undercuts the broader US airlines sector. Want to see exactly how those moving parts are stitched together?

Result: Fair Value of $5.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this hinges on leisure demand holding up and Frontier keeping costs in check, as prolonged oversupply or rising non fuel expenses could quickly pressure margins.

Find out about the key risks to this Frontier Group Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own Frontier Group Holdings Narrative

If this narrative does not fully match your view, or you prefer to work directly with the numbers yourself, you can build a custom story for Frontier in just a few minutes by starting with Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Frontier Group Holdings.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Frontier has caught your interest, do not stop here. The market is full of other opportunities, and a few focused stock idea lists can help you spot them faster.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.