Fitch raised the US GDP growth forecast for 2025 and the forecast for 2026. This adjustment was made after incorporating economic data that was delayed due to the government shutdown at the end of last year. Fitch currently expects GDP growth of 2.1% in 2025, higher than the 1.8% forecast in its December 2025 Global Economic Outlook. Meanwhile, the 2026 growth forecast was raised to 2.0% from 1.9% in the previous report. The recent CPI inflation trend is difficult to interpret given the incomplete data for October. The inflation rate is estimated to rise to 3.0% in December 2025, and due to delays in tariff transmission, it will rise further in 2026, and is expected to reach 3.2% by the end of the year. The average unemployment rate is expected to be 4.6% in 2026, which is close to recent levels, as the impact of the slowdown in employment growth is offset by a decline in labor growth. We expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in the first half of 2026 and lower the federal funds rate to 3.25%.

Zhitongcaijing · 4d ago
Fitch raised the US GDP growth forecast for 2025 and the forecast for 2026. This adjustment was made after incorporating economic data that was delayed due to the government shutdown at the end of last year. Fitch currently expects GDP growth of 2.1% in 2025, higher than the 1.8% forecast in its December 2025 Global Economic Outlook. Meanwhile, the 2026 growth forecast was raised to 2.0% from 1.9% in the previous report. The recent CPI inflation trend is difficult to interpret given the incomplete data for October. The inflation rate is estimated to rise to 3.0% in December 2025, and due to delays in tariff transmission, it will rise further in 2026, and is expected to reach 3.2% by the end of the year. The average unemployment rate is expected to be 4.6% in 2026, which is close to recent levels, as the impact of the slowdown in employment growth is offset by a decline in labor growth. We expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in the first half of 2026 and lower the federal funds rate to 3.25%.