A new wave of influenza is here! The shortage of oseltamivir due to influenza medication in many parts of the United States is comparable to DDR memory sticks

The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to a major statistic released by the American Health System Pharmacists Association (ASHP for short) on Wednesday, as the number of hospital outpatient visits for influenza-like symptoms in the US reached the highest level in more than 20 years, the influenza specific drug Tamiflu (Tamiflu, also known as oseltamvir phosphate) is currently in extreme shortage in many regions of the US.

Not only in the US, but globally, especially in regions facing cold winters, the shortage of oseltamivir is even greater than that of the DDR series memory sticks. In some cold regions of North America and Europe, the urgency on the patient side, the difficulty of replenishing supplies at pharmacies, and physical anxiety are even exaggerated compared to buying DDR series DRAM memory stick products. In contrast, there was a severe seasonal shortage of oseltamivir during the global winter influenza season, while DDR memory sticks were in a “structural mismatch between supply and demand” shortages, with a longer cycle and more systematic impact.

According to a UBS research report, the DRAM supply shortage is expected to continue until the first quarter of 2027, with demand for DDR4 and DDR5 memory cards expected to far exceed supply growth during this period. UBS expects that in the fourth quarter of this year, contract pricing for popular DDR series products may rise 35% month-on-month, and NAND flash memory prices are expected to rise 20%, all exceeding previous expectations; UBS expects that in the first quarter of 2026, contract pricing for popular DDR series products will rise further by 40%, and NAND prices will rise 20%.

ASHP stated in a disclosure report that due to a sudden shortage of this antiviral drug, ASHP, which is responsible for monitoring drug supply, is currently urgently evaluating the extent of the shortage, adding that cold regions where influenza activity has been very frequent over the years are facing the most severe supply scarcity.

Michael Ganio, senior director of pharmacy practice and quality at ASHP, said in a statement that due to an influenza strain currently prevalent globally that is more severe than previous years, the spread of the shortage “is only a matter of time.”

However, CVS Health (CVS.US), the leading pharmacy chain operator headquartered in the US, said that although demand for oseltamivir phosphate continues to surge in its stores, there is no widespread shortage across the US. Some regions with severe influenza all year round have far more severe shortages than others. Walgreens, its strongest competitor for many years, was completely privatized by New York private equity firm Sycamore Partners last year. The pharmacy operator said its pharmacy network across the US was generally “in high demand and extremely tight inventory.”

Novel variant: K subbranch (subclade K)

Duffy was initially developed exclusively by US pharmaceutical giant GILD.US (GILD.US) and licensed to Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche (Roche) and Japan's Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (Chugai Pharmaceutical). It is a very common prescription influenza treatment; pharmaceutical companies such as Amneal Pharma (AMRX.US) also provide post-patent or unpatented versions.

CNN quoted data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S. CDC) as an exclusive report that when the shortage of oseltamivir drugs for influenza occurred, hospital visits across the US due to common influenza symptoms (fever plus cough or sore throat) had reached the highest level since at least the 1997-98 influenza season.

Since only 43% of Americans have received this type of antiviral vaccine so far, this year's record influenza season was attributed to a significant genetic mutation in the common influenza strain H3N2, which led to the emergence of a novel rapidly spreading mutant known as subclade K (subclade K).

In the last week of 2025, 8.2% of hospital visits were due to influenza-like symptoms, compared to 6.7% a year ago; during the 2025-2026 influenza season, there were 9 child deaths associated with influenza symptoms, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said earlier this week.

Oseltamivir, the “elixir of influenza” urgently needed by patients around the world

In clinical and pharmaceutical terms, “Tamiflu (Tamiflu) = oseltamivir (oseltamivir)” can basically be equated. Tamiflu is the trade name/brand name of “oseltamivir phosphate (oseltamivir phosphate)”; oseltamivir is a generic name (ingredient name) that includes both Tamiflu and generic drugs from various pharmaceutical companies.

Oseltamivir is a neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI): by inhibiting neuraminidase activity on the surface of the influenza virus, it reduces the release and spread of the virus from infected cells to more cells, thereby shortening the course of the disease and reducing the risk of some complications. The drug's use is focused on influenza (influenza A/B) treatment; it is generally required that the drug be started no more than 48 hours after symptoms appear for the best results.

Oseltamivir is one of the most commonly used anti-influenza drugs with the most complete evidence and application scenarios. In particular, it is often preferred among critically ill or hospitalized people, pregnant women, children, etc.

The US FDA approval label indicates that it can be used for treatment of 2 weeks of age and above (the applicable age for prevention is specified separately); in clinical practice, more emphasis is placed on “early use” for high-risk groups (elderly, pregnant women, chronic diseases, immunosuppression, etc.).

In addition to oseltamivir, the most commonly prescribed anti-influenza drugs listed by the CDC mainly include: zanamivir (zanamivir, inhalation); peramivir (intravenous); mabalosavir (baloxavir, single oral administration) — different mechanisms: cap-dependent endonuclease inhibitors.