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Will Slower Growth Outlook Amid Strong Results Change Rubrik's (RBRK) Expansion Narrative?

Simply Wall St · 3d ago
  • In the past week, Rubrik reported quarterly results showing strong year-over-year revenue growth, raised full-year guidance, and highlighted gross margins in the low 80%s alongside solid net revenue retention above 120%.
  • At the same time, management’s outlook pointed to slower upcoming revenue growth and pressure on profitability, prompting investors to reassess the strength and durability of Rubrik’s expansion story.
  • We’ll now examine how management’s signals of slowing near-term revenue growth affect Rubrik’s previously bullish investment narrative built on rapid expansion.

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Rubrik Investment Narrative Recap

To own Rubrik today, you need to believe its strong revenue growth, high net revenue retention, and expanding cybersecurity footprint can ultimately justify a premium valuation despite ongoing losses and negative equity. The latest quarter reinforced that growth is still healthy, but management’s softer near term outlook and guidance for slower revenue expansion keep profitability and cash flow durability as the key catalyst and the biggest risk. For now, the impact of this update on the long term thesis looks material but not thesis breaking.

The most relevant recent development is Rubrik’s updated FY2026 guidance, which pairs raised full year revenue expectations with signals of sequential deceleration and a planned step down in material rights revenue in fiscal 2027. That combination keeps top line momentum in focus as a near term driver, but it also brings more attention to how Rubrik balances growth investments with its path toward sustainable margins, especially given its premium Price To Sales multiple and continued lack of GAAP profitability.

Yet beneath Rubrik’s strong growth and high retention, investors should also be aware of the risk that its premium valuation meets slower revenue expansion...

Read the full narrative on Rubrik (it's free!)

Rubrik's narrative projects $2.0 billion revenue and $257.3 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Rubrik's forecasts yield a $114.05 fair value, a 48% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

RBRK 1-Year Stock Price Chart
RBRK 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Twelve fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$20.80 to US$114.05 per share, highlighting sharply different views on Rubrik’s potential. Against this wide range, the company’s guidance for moderating revenue growth and continued losses reminds you to weigh growth expectations carefully and consider how sensitive future performance could be to any disappointment.

Explore 12 other fair value estimates on Rubrik - why the stock might be worth as much as 48% more than the current price!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.