Oriental Securities: TV panel price increases, LCD and medium-sized OLEDs are expected to lead to positive demand

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Orient Securities released a research report saying that looking ahead to 2026, LCD demand is expected to improve due to factors such as sporting events; at the same time, the LCD industry has formed a high market concentration, and leading manufacturers are expected to drive a positive supply and demand relationship with continuous production control. At the supply level, the three panel makers are expected to continue to push for production control and implement production cuts during the Lunar New Year period. Reflected in price, according to TrendForce data, TV panel prices are expected to rise across the board in January 2026. The average price of 32-inch, 43-inch, 55-inch, and 65-inch TV panels will all rise by 1 dollar compared to the previous month. OLED panels have a significant effect on improving the weight and thinness of personal computers, and are expected to become an important highlight of PC products in the future.

Orient Securities's main views are as follows:

LCD demand is expected to pick up, and leading manufacturers are expected to drive a positive supply and demand relationship with continued production control

Some investors believe that the growth in TV shipments is limited, making it difficult to improve the supply and demand relationship in the industry. Orient Securities believes that LCD demand is expected to improve in 2026 due to factors such as sporting events; at the same time, the LCD industry has formed a high market concentration, and leading manufacturers are expected to drive a positive supply and demand relationship with continuous production control. On the demand side, sporting events such as the 2026 FIFA World Cup are driving demand for stocking. At the same time, the country recently announced that it will continue to promote the trade-in policy. Among them, a 15% subsidy will still be provided for first-class energy efficiency TVs, which is expected to drive demand upward.

Looking ahead to 2026, TV panels are expected to continue the trend of increasing average size, compounded by improved shipments, which is expected to boost the overall demand area. At the supply level, LCD TV panels lack additional production capacity, and the three major panel manufacturers, including BOE, TCL Huaxing, and Huike, have achieved a high market share in total. The three panel makers are expected to continue to push for production control and implement production cuts during the Lunar New Year period. Reflected in price, according to TrendForce data, TV panel prices are expected to rise across the board in January 2026. The average price of 32-inch, 43-inch, 55-inch, and 65-inch TV panels will all rise by 1 dollar compared to the previous month.

Mid-size OLEDs are expected to accelerate penetration, driving demand in the OLED industry

Currently, the market is paying limited attention to the potential demand for mid-size OLEDs. Orient Securities believes that OLED panels have a significant effect on improving the weight and thinness of personal computers, and are expected to become an important highlight of PC products in the future. Looking ahead to 2026, factors such as improving production yield and the commissioning of 8.6-generation OLED production lines are expected to drive a significant decline in the cost of medium-sized OLEDs and drive their penetration rate to accelerate in the fields of laptops and tablets. Judging from manufacturer trends, BOE lit up China's first 8.6th generation AMOLED production line ahead of schedule on December 30, 2025, and TCL Technology's announcement in September 2025 to build an 8.6 generation printed OLED project, etc., all showing that leading manufacturers are optimistic about market demand and customer orders.

Focus on the breakthroughs of domestic manufacturers in the panel industry chain

Domestic manufacturers are accelerating technological breakthroughs in materials, driver chips, etc., and are expected to benefit from improved downstream demand. In terms of OLED materials, Wright Optoelectronics's new product Red Host materials have been delivered in small batches, and Green Prime materials and blue light materials have entered the downstream customer verification and evaluation stage; Xiahe Technology has commercialized mass production of materials such as green light doping, red light doping, and hole injection, and has now completed IPO counseling and filing. In terms of driver chips, Jichuang North, a leading manufacturer in the DDIC market in mainland China, has registered an IPO consultation registration on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. Looking forward to the future, domestic manufacturers are expected to continue to make breakthroughs in all aspects of the panel industry chain and accelerate the process of localization and substitution.

Related targets

Panel manufacturers TCL Technology (000100.SZ), BOE A (000725.SZ), Rainbow (600707.SH), Shentianma A (000050.SZ), Vicino (002387.SZ), Hehui Optoelectronics (688538.SH), etc.; panel material manufacturers Wright Optoelectronics (688150.SH), Luwei Optoelectronics (), Qingyi Optoelectronics (), etc.; panel module manufacturer BOE Precision Electronics (00710), etc. 688401.SH 688138.SH

Risk Alerts

Downstream demand fell short of expectations, the cost reduction process fell short of expectations, and progress in localization fell short of expectations.