WEBULL

Is Safehold (SAFE) Quietly Redefining Its Ground Lease Strategy Through Affordable Housing Deals?

Simply Wall St · 2d ago
  • Safehold Inc. recently closed a ground lease for a Low Income Tax Credit affordable housing development in Woodland Hills, Los Angeles, supporting a 207‑unit community expected to be delivered in 2028 and developed by Meta Housing.
  • The deal highlights Safehold’s dedicated Affordable Housing team, established in 2025, and underlines its push to grow its ground lease portfolio in this specialized segment.
  • We’ll now examine how this new 207‑unit Los Angeles affordable housing ground lease could influence Safehold’s broader investment narrative and outlook.

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Safehold Investment Narrative Recap

To own Safehold, you have to be comfortable with a ground lease model that prioritizes long term, relatively predictable cash flows from land ownership. The new 207 unit Los Angeles affordable housing ground lease adds to that thesis, but it does not meaningfully change the key short term catalyst, which remains the pace of new originations, or the biggest risk, which is whether macro and real estate conditions allow Safehold to keep adding attractive ground leases consistently.

The most relevant recent announcement alongside this deal is Safehold’s closing of a US$400,000,000 unsecured term loan in November 2025, which lifted liquidity to about US$1,300,000,000. Together with the new Woodland Hills ground lease, this extra balance sheet flexibility matters for investors watching how effectively Safehold can fund and scale its portfolio without putting further pressure on earnings coverage of interest and dividends.

Yet while the affordable housing push is encouraging, investors should also be aware that Safehold’s growing exposure to regulated housing markets could...

Read the full narrative on Safehold (it's free!)

Safehold’s narrative projects $449.9 million revenue and $144.1 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Safehold's forecasts yield a $20.27 fair value, a 41% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

SAFE 1-Year Stock Price Chart
SAFE 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Three members of the Simply Wall St Community value Safehold between US$16.00 and US$20.27 per share, showing a fairly tight but varied range of expectations. Against that, the key risk many will focus on is whether macro and commercial real estate conditions slow new ground lease originations further, so it can be helpful to compare several of these views before forming your own.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Safehold - why the stock might be worth just $16.00!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.