Scotiabank gave AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US) a “sell” rating: the target price is bearish by nearly 50%, saying it is difficult to beat Starlink

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Scotiabank Canada analyst Andres Coelho said that AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US) is facing difficult challenges in competition with Starlink (Starlink). The company doesn't have a single retail customer yet, and its stock price “soared once again to what we think is unreasonable.” As a result, the stock was given a “sell” rating and set a target price of $45.60, which means there is 46.8% room for decline from Wednesday's closing price.

Coelho warned investors that they might need to wait until 2028 or 2029 to see actual free equity cash flow generated. During this period, AST SpaceMobile will compete with Starlink, which is already equivalent to 340 million global direct-to-consumer users in terms of revenue. By the time AST SpaceMobile launches in selected markets, this number is expected to reach approximately 680 million.

Coelho added: “Although AST SpaceMobile's process of launching seven satellites has been challenging since 2017, Starlink successfully launched 3169 satellites into orbit in 2025 alone.”

Despite the gap between Starlink and AST SpaceMobile, Coelho believes that AST SpaceMobile's large satellite is “one of the greatest technological breakthroughs of our time.” Unfortunately, the five-year delay in satellite deployment not only allowed Starlink to lead AST SpaceMobile by two years in the direct-connected mobile phone business, but also became the “absolute leader” in the satellite fixed broadband business in 150 countries.

Coelho pointed out, “Even with a delay of only 48 hours, AST SpaceMobile will be further behind Starlink because Starlink can complete a launch mission every one to two days.” He also added that Starlink's integration with Space Exploration Technology (SpaceX) means it doesn't need to rely on other companies to launch satellites like AST SpaceMobile.

However, despite Starlink's advantages, Coelho warned that shorting AST SpaceMobile is also risky. He mentioned a photo where AST SpaceMobile CEO Abel Avellan (Abel Avellan) was standing with Jeff Bezos (Jeff Bezos) and titled “Amazing Things Are Happening at AST & Science + @蓝色起源.”

In the photo, Avellan is wearing a visitor's card and Bezos doesn't, which indicates that AST SpaceMobile's CEO may have been at the launch site of Blue Origin at the time.

Although Coelho believes that Amazon (AMZN.US)'s “Project Kuiper (Project Kuiper)” (now Amazon LEO) “may already be overwhelmed when considering investing in new satellite technology,” it makes sense that Kuiper plans to seek synergy with AST SpaceMobile.

After rising as much as 34% for three consecutive days, Scotiabank Canada downgraded AST SpaceMobile's rating from “equal to the industry” to “underperforming the industry”, causing its stock price to close down 12.06% on Wednesday.