Tokai Securities: Storage price increases unabated, AI is still the main narrative

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Donghai Securities released a research report saying that the semiconductor industry continued to pick up in December, prices continued to rise, focusing on structural opportunities such as AI computing power, AIOT, semiconductor equipment, key components, and storage price increases. Industry demand is slowly recovering, AI investment continues to exceed expectations, and memory chip prices have risen above expectations; autonomous and controllable efforts are still increasing under overseas pressure. Currently, market capital is relatively hot, so it is recommended that the layout be dips.

The main views of Donghai Securities are as follows:

Summary of December 2025 and outlook for January 2026

The semiconductor industry continued to pick up in December, and prices continued to rise, focusing on structural opportunities such as AI computing power, AIOT, semiconductor equipment, key components, and storage. Global semiconductor demand continued to improve in December. PCs and smartphones maintained a slight increase. TWS headsets, wearable wrist devices, and smart homes grew rapidly, and AI servers and new energy vehicles maintained rapid growth, and demand may continue to recover in January 2026; on the supply side, although corporate inventory levels are high and still rising, demand in some market segments brought about by AI has increased prices, and consumer electronics such as mobile phones and PCs were affected by memory price increases or caused costs to rise, which may slow down semiconductor shipments. It is expected to continue to improve. In December, domestic GPU rookie Moore Thread and Mu Xi shares were listed one after another. Broadcom and Micron's fourth quarter results all grew rapidly, driven by AI. AI is still the main story for a long time to come; the tariff policies between China and the US have been relaxed to a certain extent, and Nvidia H200 exports to China have been approved, but in some technology-intensive fields (high-end AI chips, key components of semiconductor equipment, etc.), US policy may remain high. It is recommended to focus on the industry's high cost in the short term, and the localization of semiconductors is expected to continue to accelerate in the long term. Yes.

Overall semiconductor prices continued to rise in December, demand continued to pick up, and demand may recover further in January 2026

Global semiconductor sales in October were 27.23% year on year, and the cumulative year-on-year period from January to October was 21.19% year on year. The growth rate further accelerated, reflecting an overall recovery on the demand side. Taking storage prices as an example, the overall rise and fall range of storage module prices in December was 10.42%-68.42%; the price range of DRAM and NANDFLASH for memory chips was 1.73%-57.42%, continuing the November increase. Looking at leading global companies, the overall inventory for 2025Q3 remained high in recent years, and the number of turnover days declined. According to the 2025Q3 data sample of 154 A-share listed companies, inventory increased month-on-month, revenue was 4.15% month-on-month, and net profit was 44.21% month-on-month. On the supply side, global semiconductor equipment shipments in 2025Q3 increased 10.80% year on year, and equipment procurement efforts increased; Japan's semiconductor equipment shipments increased 3.67% year on year in November, and the cumulative year-on-year ratio for January-November was 16.10%, or indicates that production capacity expansion in 1-2 years was quite positive. Wafer prices rose in 2025Q3 compared to the same period, and capacity utilization remained at a high level.

Demand for TWS headsets, wearable wrist devices, AI servers, and new energy vehicles recovered relatively well in downstream semiconductor demand. Except for tablets, there was a decline in 2025Q3, and overall demand gradually improved

Mobile phones, PCs, tablets, automobiles, servers, smart wearables, etc. account for more than 80% of global downstream semiconductor demand, and their sales will affect changes in demand for upstream semiconductors. Global smartphone shipments in 2025Q3 were 2.09% year-on-year, Q1-Q3 cumulative year-on-year was 1.56%, mainland China smartphone shipments were 1.87%, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate was 0.88% in November, and the growth rate slowed; 2025Q3 global PC shipments were 9.52% yoy, Q1-Q3 cumulative year-on-year was 7.12%; 2025Q3 global tablet growth rate was -4.28% yoy; Q1-Q3 cumulative year-on-year; global TWS headphone 2025Q3 shipments increased 0.33% yoy; China New Energy vehicle sales were 20.59% year-on-year in November, and the cumulative year-on-year figure for January-November was 30.82%.

In December, Moore Thread and Mu Xi Co., Ltd. were listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. Tianshu Zhixin, Bijiao Technology, and the big model startup MiniMax sprint to the Hong Kong stock market. The trend of domestic replacement of AI and computing power chips has not abated; the sale of the Nvidia H200 to China was approved, which may improve the efficiency of domestic large-scale model training

(1) Moore Thread's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 785 million yuan, up 181.99% year on year. The main product is a full-function GPU. The MTTS80 video card's single-precision floating-point computing performance is close to Nvidia RTX 3060, and the efficiency of the kilocar GPU intelligent computing cluster built on the MTTS5000 exceeds the efficiency of similar foreign GPU clusters; Mu Xi Co., Ltd.'s revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1,236 billion yuan, an increase of 453.52% over the previous year. Its Xiyun C600, which is based on the domestic supply chain, has returned and lit up. Comprehensive performance is compared to the Nvidia H100. Furthermore, recently, Tianshu Zhixin, Bizao Technology, and the big model startup MiniMax are all anchored in the Hong Kong stock market. First-tier domestic GPU companies are sprinting into the capital market one after another, and the autonomous process of high-end computing power chips is expected to continue to accelerate under the joint efforts of the capital market and national policies. (2) The sale of the Nvidia H200 to “approved customers” has been approved. Similar policies will also apply to AMD and Intel, etc., marking a new adjustment in the US AI chip export policy to China. The H200's performance is significantly higher than the H20. In the short term, its introduction may improve the training and iteration efficiency of large domestic AI models and increase competition in the computing power chip market. In the long run, the performance of domestic computing power chips will continue to catch up with the world's top chip level. The trend of AI autonomy will not change.

Investment advice

Industry demand is slowly recovering, AI investment continues to exceed expectations, and memory chip prices have risen above expectations; autonomous and controllable efforts are still increasing under overseas pressure. Currently, market capital is relatively hot, so it is recommended that the layout be dips. Recommended attention: (1) Lexin Technology, Hengxuan Technology, Ruixin, Zhongke Lanxun, Juxin Technology, Quanzhi Technology, Jingchen Co., Ltd., Aojie Technology, and Tailingwei in the field of AIOT benefiting from strong domestic and international demand. (2) AI innovation-driven sector, computing power chips focus on Cambrian, Moore Threading, Longxin Zhongke, Lanqi Technology; optical devices focus on Yuanjie Technology, Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyisheng, Tianfu Communications, Guangxun Technology; PCB section focuses on Shenghong Technology, Shanghai Electric Power Co., Ltd., Shennan Circuit, Shengyi Technology, Dongshan Precision, etc.; storage focuses on Jiang Bolong, Demingli, Baiwei Storage, Zhaoyi Innovation, Beijing Junzheng; servers and liquid cooling focus on Invek, Sinopec, Xinyisheng, Tianfu Communications, Guangxun Technology Wealthy and Industrial Federation. (3) The semiconductor equipment, components, and materials industry produced domestically in the upstream supply chain will replace expectations, focusing on Beifang Huachuang, Zhongwei, Tuojing Technology, Huahai Qingke, Shengmei Shanghai, Fuchuang Precision, Xinlai, CSIC, Walter Gas, Anji Technology, Dinglong Co., Ltd., and Jingrui Electric Materials. (4) The leading targets where prices have bottomed out and recovered are focusing on the new clean energy, Yangjie Technology, and Dongwei Semiconductor in the power sector; the CIS's Howell Group, Starway, and Geke Micro; and analog chips such as Shengbang Co., Ltd., Sirip, Maxinsheng, and Chippeng.

Risk warning: (1) downstream demand recovery falls short of expected risk; (2) domestic substitution process falls short of expected risk; (3) product development progress falls short of expected risk.