Open Source Securities: Supply Chain Security Incidents Catalyze Autonomy and Control of Semiconductor Materials/Equipment Expected to Accelerate

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Open Source Securities released a research report saying that external risks reinforce autonomous demands, internal production expansion lays the foundation for growth, and that semiconductor materials/equipment can be controlled or accelerated independently. Global geopolitical risks have intensified, and concerns about “supply cuts” in reliance on external technology may be repriced by the market. The bank believes that the investment logic for semiconductor materials/equipment has formed a “two-wheel drive.”

The main views of Open Source Securities are as follows:

Incidents

According to the Ministry of Commerce's announcement on January 6, it is prohibited to export all dual-use items to Japanese military users, military use, and any other end user use that helps enhance Japan's military strength.

Intensive industrial-side catalysis will pour in. Domestic advanced manufacturing processes and advanced storage are highly deterministic about expanding production, opening up room for growth in upstream shovel stocks

Short-term catalysis: Supply chain security concerns accelerate the will and urgency of downstream manufacturing plants to introduce domestic solutions, especially the “stuck neck” link. Long-term fundamentals: Recently, Changxin's IPO revealed plans to raise about 30 billion yuan, increase the capital of SMIC's Southern plant by more than 7 billion US dollars, large funds increase its holdings in SMIC, and the integration of mature logic interests of major Fab companies, which indicates that the capital-level layout has fully accelerated.

Material: From “having” to “using”, production capacity first, can meet core customer needs

Domestic materials have moved from a “single-point breakthrough” to a critical stage of “systematic support”. Photoresist: Localization attacks the core area. The domestication rate of high-end KrF/ArF photoresists is still in single digits, with Japan's JSR, Tokyo Chemical, and Shin-Etsu Chemical dominating the market. Some panel photoresist products are also controlled by Japanese companies. In the context of the ban, downstream manufacturing plants give domestic manufacturers verification windows and intentions or enhancements. The leading material “capacity first” is already in place: the construction cycle of a fab is usually 2 to 3 years. Material companies need to build supporting production capacity in advance according to downstream production capacity plans to match future order demand and seize share. Currently, leading domestic materials companies have completed a forward-looking layout through fund-raising projects and other methods.

Glue-coated imaging equipment, back-end testing equipment and electron beam testing equipment are expected to benefit

Adhesive imaging: In 2020, Tokyo Electronics had a market share of 90% in the field of glued imaging. According to North China Huachuang's response to investors' questions in 2025, the domestic market size reached 14 billion yuan, and the current localization rate is still low. Glue-coated imaging equipment is closely cooperating with exposure equipment, and performance directly affects the yield and precision of lithography output. Currently, leading domestic companies have achieved coverage of I-line, KrF, ArF, etc. In the context of the ban, the importance of safety in the supply chain of coated imaging equipment has increased, and there is broad space for domestic replacement.

Backend testing machines: Edwin has a high share of high-performance SoC and storage testers. At present, domestic test equipment has achieved high localization rates in analog and digital-analog mixers, and is accelerating penetration into high-end SoC testing and storage testing fields with high channel count and high frequency. The ban is expected to speed up the verification of high-end domestic testing machines.

Measurement testing: Japan's Hitachi occupies a high share in the CD-SEM field. Currently, domestic equipment companies are gradually entering this field. For example, Zhongke Fisei, Precision Electronics, and China Micro have launched related products.

Beneficial targets: Materials: Tongcheng New Materials/Jingrui Electric Materials/Nanda Optoelectronics/Rongda Photosensitive/Hengkun New Materials/Aisen Co., Ltd. (photoresist), Dinglong (photoresister+polishing pad), Anji Technology (polishing liquid+wet chemicals), Yake Technology (panel photoresist+precursor), Guangzhou Steel Gas/Huate Gas/Jinhong Gas (electronic gas), Luwei Optoelectronics/Longtu photoelectric mask/clear light overflow film (electronic gas)). Equipment: Changchuan Technology/Huafeng Measurement and Control/Jingzhida (testing machine), Xinyuan Wei/Shengmei Shanghai (glued imaging equipment).

Risk warning: Domestic substitution progress falls short of expectations; fab production expansion is slowing down; competition is intensifying.