Guohai Securities: Neuralink mass production is imminent, domestic brain chains are expected to fully benefit

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guohai Securities released a research report saying that Neuralink announced a large-scale breakthrough in brain-computer interfaces represented by mass production in 2026, marking a turning point in this field from laboratory research and development to large-scale commercial application. Considering the rigid demand in the field of medical rehabilitation, the broad potential of non-intrusive technology in the consumer market, and the accelerated layout of domestic policy support and industrial chain support, enterprises in China's brain-computer interface industry chain will be the first to benefit; based on this, the “recommended” rating for the computer industry will be maintained.

Guohai Securities's main views are as follows:

Incidents

On January 1, 2026, US time, Elon Musk announced on social media that its brain-computer interface company Neuralink will begin large-scale mass production in 2026 and switch to a more streamlined and fully automated surgical process.

Neuralink lays out three production lines, with the long-term intention of connecting all human AI

Neuralink is a biomedical company founded by Elon Musk in 2016. It mainly focuses on minimally invasive implants to achieve high-precision interaction between the brain and external devices. Technical systems include implant chips, flexible electrode wires, automated surgical robots, and supporting interactive software. According to the different regions of the brain, three major product layouts have now been formed:

(1) Telepathy telepathy: For patients with motor dysfunction, 64-channel devices are currently used to ideally manipulate electronic devices and robotic arms;

(2) Blindsight blind vision: Focus on visual reconstruction, stimulate the visual cortex through high-channel electrodes, and plan to achieve black and white outline perception in 2026. In the future, it may be integrated with VR/AR technology to construct digital vision;

(3) Deep: Aimed at the field of neuromodulation, abnormal neuronal discharge is regulated through deep brain electrode implantation. Treatment plans for diseases such as Parkinson's and depression have entered the animal testing stage.

Musk pointed out that Neuralink's ultimate goal is to achieve neuron monitoring and writing in any region of the brain, achieve deep connectivity through wireless high-speed transmission, and eventually popularize the ideological control of Tesla's Optimus Prime robots. To this end, its short-term plan: increase the number of device electrodes to 3,000 in 2026 to begin visual recovery; increase the number of electrodes to 10,000 in 2027 and enable multiple devices to be implanted in the motor cortex, speech cortex, or visual cortex; increase the number of electrodes to 25,000 in 2028, fully connect to any region of the brain, touch deeper brain regions to treat psychiatric diseases and neurological pain, and explore for the first time all human AI interconnection outside of medical care.

Healthcare just needs to be led and the consumer industry to follow up, and brain-computer interfaces have spawned a 100 billion circuit

The brain-computer interface market shows strong growth potential, and Precedence Statistics expects the global downstream application market to reach approximately US$3.19 billion by 2025. McKinsey further predicts that by 2030 and 2040, the global brain-computer interface medical application market is expected to reach 40 billion US dollars and 145 billion US dollars, respectively, of which the disease treatment market will reach 15 billion US dollars and 85 billion US dollars, while the medical consumer market is expected to grow to 25 billion US dollars and 60 billion US dollars. At the same time, brain-computer interface products that focus on non-invasive technology, such as sleep aid devices, smart dexterous hands, and bionic legs, have also shown broad application prospects in the fields of sleep health, rehabilitation and care, consumer entertainment, etc.

Focusing on the Chinese market, the China Business Industry Research Institute and CCID consultants expect the domestic brain-computer interface market to exceed 3.8 billion yuan in 2025 and continue to expand at an average annual growth rate of about 20%, and is expected to reach 6.14 billion yuan by 2028. Currently, the industry is showing a pattern of “medical care just needs to be led, and consumption and industrial applications are gradually being followed up”. The demand in the medical field is clear. It has shown high clinical efficiency in scenarios such as spinal cord injury rehabilitation, and medical insurance independently sets fees for related projects, further enhancing the purchasing motivation of medical institutions. In the consumer electronics sector, products such as idea typing and sleep monitoring have entered the OEM mass production stage. Most industrial scenarios are currently in the testing stage, and brain-controlled robotic arms have shown potential application value in precision assembly and high-risk operations.

Policy paves the way to establish an industrial support system; technological research achieves multi-dimensional milestones

At the policy level, China has established a multi-level, full-coverage brain-computer interface industry support system. Seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the “Implementation Opinions on Promoting Innovation and Development of the Brain-Computer Interface Industry”, clearly proposing the establishment of an internationally competitive industrial ecosystem by 2030. The National Medical Security Administration innovatively set up a brain-computer interface medical service price program to provide a clear basis for clinical charges; precise local policies cover the entire chain from R&D, clinical, pricing to medical insurance payments; Zhejiang included non-intrusive brain-computer interface adaptation fees in the scope of medical insurance payments; Shanghai launched a “Brain Intelligence World” cluster area and provided financial support of up to 50 million yuan. Beijing promoted technological transformation through standard pioneering and platform construction.

On the technical side, China has achieved many breakthroughs in the field of brain-computer interfaces in 2025, forming a pattern of parallel development of multiple technology routes. In the invasive field, the first invasive brain-computer interface clinical trial was successfully carried out, making it the second country in the world to master this technology; in the semi-invasive field, “North Brain 1” launched multi-center clinical trials; non-invasive technology also innovated in ultrasound pathways, etc. The first clinical implantation of a nationally produced brain-computer interface chip was completed. High-throughput wireless systems (such as the 256-channel WRS02) reduced end-to-end latency to less than 100 ms, and innovatively used online recalibration technology to maintain high system performance. Brain-computer interface technology is making the leap from laboratories to large-scale applications.

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Risk warning: Macroeconomics affects downstream demand; AI development falls short of expectations; AI application development has uncertainties such as laws and regulations; market competition intensifies; the game between China and the US intensifies; raw material prices fluctuate; and related companies' performance falls short of expectations.