CITIC Construction Investment expects crude oil to enter an oversupply cycle in 2026, highlighting dividends in the three major sectors of refining, shale oil, and natural gas. In 2026, the global crude oil market will officially enter the oversupply cycle. The IEA estimates that the scale of the surplus will reach 3.84 million b/d, and the oil price center will shift systematically to the main line. However, geographical conflicts, sanctions, and inventory disturbances will still bring phased trading opportunities. Real structural opportunities are shifting from “oil prices” to “companies”: high cracking price differentials at the refinery end, US shale oil showing resilience in production around $60, and LNG expansion and electricity demand heating up natural gas mergers and acquisitions, forming a core benefit direction in a low oil price environment.

CITIC Construction Investment expects crude oil to enter an oversupply cycle in 2026, highlighting dividends in the three major sectors of refining, shale oil, and natural gas. In 2026, the global crude oil market will officially enter the oversupply cycle. The IEA estimates that the scale of the surplus will reach 3.84 million b/d, and the oil price center will shift systematically to the main line. However, geographical conflicts, sanctions, and inventory disturbances will still bring phased trading opportunities. Real structural opportunities are shifting from “oil prices” to “companies”: high cracking price differentials at the refinery end, US shale oil showing resilience in production around $60, and LNG expansion and electricity demand heating up natural gas mergers and acquisitions, forming a core benefit direction in a low oil price environment.