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A Look At Academy Sports And Outdoors (ASO) Valuation After Recent Share Price Momentum

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) has recently drawn investor attention after its shares fluctuated between a negative 1-day return and gains over the past week, month, and past 3 months, prompting closer scrutiny of its fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Academy Sports and Outdoors.

The recent 7 day share price return of 13.87% and 30 day gain of 16.46% come after a year to date share price return of 9.09%. At the same time, the 1 year total shareholder return shows a 2.31% decline, which contrasts with a 166.61% total shareholder return over five years. This suggests that short term momentum is building again, while longer term holders have already seen substantial value creation.

If Academy Sports and Outdoors has you thinking about where else consumer trends could show up in markets, it might be worth scanning auto manufacturers as a next step.

With Academy Sports and Outdoors trading at a 34% discount to one intrinsic value estimate and only a small gap to analyst targets, the real question is whether this reflects a genuine value opportunity or a market that has already priced in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 3.7% Undervalued

With Academy Sports and Outdoors last closing at US$56.89 against a narrative fair value of US$59.10, the current setup hinges on how durable its growth and margin plans really are.

Bullish analysts emphasize the regional to national expansion runway, suggesting that continued store openings in underpenetrated markets can drive revenue growth and support the raised fair value estimate.

The margin accretive private label portfolio is seen as a key differentiator that can support gross margin resilience and partially offset promotional pressures, underpinning earnings and multiple support.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of sales line that store rollout implies, or how much profit per share it includes, and what earnings multiple ties it all together? The full narrative lays out those assumptions in black and white.

Result: Fair Value of $59.10 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, that story can quickly change if heavier promotions continue to pressure margins or if dependence on key brands and higher income shoppers starts to have a negative impact.

Find out about the key risks to this Academy Sports and Outdoors narrative.

Build Your Own Academy Sports and Outdoors Narrative

If you look at the numbers and come to a different conclusion, or simply prefer your own process, you can build a custom story in minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Academy Sports and Outdoors research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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If Academy Sports and Outdoors has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with focused ideas that match how you like to invest.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.