The Runsystem Co.,Ltd. (TSE:3326) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 30%. The annual gain comes to 127% following the latest surge, making investors sit up and take notice.
After such a large jump in price, RunsystemLtd's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 71.8x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Japan, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 14x and even P/E's below 10x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at RunsystemLtd over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.
See our latest analysis for RunsystemLtd
In order to justify its P/E ratio, RunsystemLtd would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 69% decrease to the company's bottom line. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.
Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 8.8% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.
In light of this, it's alarming that RunsystemLtd's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The strong share price surge has got RunsystemLtd's P/E rushing to great heights as well. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
Our examination of RunsystemLtd revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 5 warning signs for RunsystemLtd you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.