WEBULL

Assessing Harmony Biosciences (HRMY) Valuation After Fresh Clinical Trial Progress In Rare Neurological Disorders

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Recent attention on Harmony Biosciences Holdings (HRMY) centers on progress in clinical trials for new uses of its lead drug WAKIX and other pipeline candidates such as Pitolisant and ZYN-002 targeting rare neurological disorders.

See our latest analysis for Harmony Biosciences Holdings.

At a recent share price of US$36.75, Harmony’s 90 day share price return of 38.37% contrasts with a slightly negative year to date share price return and a modest 4.46% 1 year total shareholder return. This suggests momentum has picked up recently as the pipeline advances.

If Harmony’s trial progress has caught your attention, it could be a good moment to scan other specialised healthcare names using our healthcare stocks as a starting list of ideas.

With Harmony delivering US$825.9m in revenue and US$185.7m in net income, yet trading at US$36.75 with a value score of 5 and a large intrinsic discount, is this a buying opportunity or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 17.5% Undervalued

With Harmony’s last close at US$36.75 and a fair value estimate of US$44.55, the most followed narrative sees meaningful upside still on the table.

Harmony is positioned to capture new sources of revenue and reduce product concentration risk through near-term late-stage pipeline catalysts, including potential first-to-market launches for ZYN002 in Fragile X syndrome and additional pitolisant formulations (HD and GR), each aimed at high-unmet-need, orphan indications.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue trajectory and margin profile need to line up for that valuation? The narrative leans on steady expansion and a future earnings base supported by a lower P/E than the wider US pharmaceuticals group. The tension lies in how confidently those cash flows are projected and what discount rate brings them back to today’s price.

Result: Fair Value of $44.55 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ZYN-002’s Phase 3 setback in Fragile X and the possibility of future pressure on WAKIX from orexin 2 receptor agonists could quickly challenge that upside story.

Find out about the key risks to this Harmony Biosciences Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own Harmony Biosciences Holdings Narrative

If you see the story differently or prefer to test the assumptions yourself, you can build a custom view in minutes with Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Harmony Biosciences Holdings.

Ready To Hunt For Your Next Idea?

If Harmony has sparked your curiosity, do not stop here. Put a few minutes into scanning other stocks so you are not relying on a single story.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.