Q&A with CREFC CEO Lisa Pendergast on the Outlook for 2026

The largest annual gathering of commercial real estate finance professionals in the U.S. is nearly upon us: CREFC Miami, scheduled for Jan. 11-14, projects attendance of more than 4,000 industry professionals representing 400-plius companies. In advance of the conference, Connect CRE sounded out Lisa Pendergast, president and CEO of the CRE Finance Council, for her take on what 2026 holds in store.

Q: Heading into 2026 and the Miami 2026 conference, have the CRE finance industry’s outlook and expectations evolved as compared to a year ago?

A: Yes, I view the outlook for 2026 as it relates to the likelihood of modestly lower benchmark rates and heightened clarity as to the direction of certain CRE assets like office and retail, as being accretive to increased CRE price discovery and transaction activity. What’s more, recent Fed easing activity and thus lower benchmark rates will certainly prove helpful in financing new loans and refinancing the significant volume of loans ($664 billion) maturing in 2026. The focus for 2026 is on the Fed and the FOMC’s ability to continue to ease the Fed Funds rate. As of now, Fed Funds futures suggest the potential for two to three rate cuts in 2026. The lower benchmark rates will certainly unleash an environment in which financing new loans and refinancing existing loans will be far less challenging than it has been in recent years.

Q: It has been just under six months since the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) of 2025 was signed into law. How have the effects of the OBBBA on CRE lending—and borrowing—become clearer in that time?

A: To the good, the OBBBA made several key provisions of the 2017 tax bill permanent, which will spur investment and provide long term certainty for real estate borrowers and investors. The law also seeks to address the affordable housing supply by including Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) formula boost.

Key programs made permanent or extended include:

• 199A Passthrough entity deduction

• Permanent renewal of Opportunity Zones program, and

• Permanent bonus depreciation for qualified property, which can include qualified improvements in commercial buildings.

In terms of new programs, we are watching how the new immediate factory expensing provision will drive construction. The qualified production property allows full, immediate expensing for certain manufacturing buildings with construction beginning in 2025 through 2029 and placed into service.

Q: Over the course of four days, Miami 2026 covers a great deal of ground. Are there subjects that were newly introduced for this conference, or themes that are likely to be more prominent in the discussions than they would have been last year?

A: Yes, several themes are either new or longstanding ones that have taken on greater prominence. One of the most anticipated and effective segments at our conference are the CREFC Forum sessions. These forums represent various segments of our markets and include our Alternative Lenders and High Yield Investors Forum, B-Piece Investors Forum, GSE Multifamily Lenders Forum, Investment-Grade Bondholders Forum, Issuer’s Forum, Portfolio Lenders Forum, Servicers Forum. Taken together, these Forum sessions provide important snapshots for the entire ecosystem of commercial real estate finance markets.

Housing. There has been a renewed focus on housing and for us at CREFC that generally means multifamily housing in all of its permutations. Think workforce housing, affordable housing, mixed-income housing, student housing, senior housing, and single-family rentals. The issue of housing affordability has risen in importance over the last few years and has become a top issue in the House and Senate, the White House, and with the GSEs.

Growth of CRE Debt Funds and CRE Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs). Debt funds are an important source of funding for transitional assets, with a preponderance of multifamily loan originations in most of these CRE CLO loan pools. CREFC continues to work with these funds to help build the necessary infrastructure to ensure they continue to grow in volume and import. To the good, the CRE CLO market has proven to be a solid funding source for non-stabilized CRE and multifamily assets. In 2025, CRE CLO issuance grew sharply to ~$30 billion, the second highest annual tally since 2021’s $45.6 billion. CREFC staff have worked diligently to develop a thorough and concise report for each CLO that updates CLO investors on loan and asset-level performance, focusing on whether the asset is stabilizing over time as projected.

Moving Beyond the U.S. and Going Global. It comes as no surprise that the Global Capital Landscape is broadening. The CREFC conference will focus on the exploration of how emerging markets, sovereign wealth funds, and family offices are working to reshape international investment patterns.

Asset Class Evolution & Geographic Shifts. Discover how investor preferences are moving beyond traditional gateway cities toward secondary markets and the Sunbelt, while pivoting to industrial, multifamily, data centers, and emerging property sectors.

Future of International Capital Flows into the U.S. In general, U.S. real estate continues to maintain its “safe haven” status in an evolving global landscape. Discussion here will focus on how technology, ESG mandates, demographic shifts, and climate considerations will shape the next wave of global investment.

Q: From a legislative and regulatory standpoint, what are some CREFC priorities for 2026?

A: From a legislative and regulatory standpoint, CREFC’s priorities for 2026 span several critical areas. We will continue to engage with the financial regulators as they pursue a deregulatory path where it makes sense to do so. We have been working with the SEC, encouraging important changes to burdensome and unnecessary reporting requirements. This would allow for more efficient market access for borrowers and issuers. And, like others across the financial industry, we are eagerly awaiting proposed changes to the bank capital regime and will comment on elements with important CRE implications.

CREFC is also working with lawmakers to reauthorize and extend the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) before it expires at the end of 2027. The program, which was implemented after the 9-11 terrorist attacks, is essential in creating a market where buildings can purchase terrorism risk insurance.

In addition, CREFC will continue to focus on housing affordability, including important programs like low-income housing tax credits and other supply-boosting efforts. CREFC supports housing supply legislation that passed out of the House Financial Services Committee in December, and we look forward to continuing to work on bipartisan solutions to make housing affordable for more people. We have been engaged with the New York Fed on ways in which Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFI) can access more capital (including via securitization) to facilitate more multifamily investment in underserved areas. The goal is to spur additional investment activity and development.

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