Is Byrna Technologies (BYRN) Pricing In Too Much Pessimism After A 35% One-Year Decline?

• If you are wondering whether Byrna Technologies at around US$17.50 is a bargain or already pricing in a lot of optimism, you are in the right place.
• The stock has been through a mixed patch, with a 1.4% gain over the last week, an 11.0% decline over the past month, a 4.7% gain year to date, a 35.3% decline over the past year, and a 94.4% gain over three years that leaves the five year return at 25.0%.
• These swings have kept Byrna Technologies on the radar of investors watching how sentiment around less lethal self defense products evolves, and how the company responds through product, distribution, or regulatory updates. While the headlines change quickly, the key question for long term investors is whether the current share price still lines up with the underlying fundamentals.
• Simply Wall St's valuation model currently gives Byrna Technologies a value score of 6/6. This means it screens as undervalued across all six checks we run. Next, we will run through the main valuation methods behind that score before finishing with a way to put those numbers into an even richer context.

Find out why Byrna Technologies's -35.3% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: Byrna Technologies Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a business might be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back to a present value.

For Byrna Technologies, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, with all figures in US$. The company currently reports last twelve month free cash flow of $8.23 million loss. Analysts provide free cash flow estimates up to 2027, rising to $21.20 million, and Simply Wall St then extrapolates these out to 2035, reaching a projected free cash flow of $53.13 million in year ten.

When these projected cash flows are discounted back, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $37.26 per share. Compared with a recent share price around $17.50, this implies a discount of roughly 53.0%, which suggests the shares screen as materially undervalued under this method.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Byrna Technologies is undervalued by 53.0%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 877 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Byrna Technologies.

Approach 2: Byrna Technologies Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a useful way to see how much you are paying for each dollar of earnings. It reflects both what the market thinks about a company’s prospects and how comfortable investors are with its risks.

Higher expected earnings growth and lower perceived risk usually support a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk often line up with a lower, more cautious P/E. So the question is not whether a P/E is high or low in isolation, but whether it fits the company’s specific profile.

Byrna Technologies currently trades on a P/E of 24.9x, compared with an Aerospace & Defense industry average of 40.4x and a peer group average of 46.0x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Byrna, at 26.2x, is its proprietary view of what a “normal” P/E could look like given factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market cap and key risks.

This Fair Ratio can be more tailored than a simple peer or industry comparison, because it connects the multiple to Byrna’s own fundamentals rather than broad group averages. With the Fair Ratio of 26.2x sitting modestly above the current 24.9x, the P/E suggests the shares screen as undervalued on this metric.

Result: UNDERVALUED

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1450 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Byrna Technologies Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simply your story about Byrna Technologies linked to a set of numbers such as your assumed fair value and your expectations for future revenue, earnings and margins.

On Simply Wall St, available to millions of investors through the Community page, a Narrative connects how you see the business to a financial forecast and then to a fair value, so you can quickly compare that fair value to the current share price and decide whether the stock looks expensive, cheap, or somewhere in between to you.

Because Narratives on the platform are updated automatically when new information like news or earnings is added, you are not locked into a static view, and you can see how your story and numbers for Byrna evolve over time.

For example, one Byrna Narrative might lean toward the higher fair value of US$46.00 if the author expects stronger revenue and earnings. Another might sit closer to US$35.00 if the author is more cautious about margins and risks such as tariffs and reliance on Amazon. Yet both use the same simple framework of story, forecast, and fair value.

Do you think there's more to the story for Byrna Technologies? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com