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Will Softer Guidance Amid Brand Expansion Change e.l.f. Beauty's (ELF) Growth Narrative?

Simply Wall St · 2d ago
  • In its latest reported quarter, e.l.f. Beauty posted 14.2% year-on-year revenue growth but missed analyst estimates and issued full-year guidance below expectations, disappointing the market.
  • This setback comes even as the company expands its brand presence, including integrating its billion-dollar Rhode acquisition and continuing to gain shelf space and consumer attention.
  • We’ll now explore how this weaker-than-expected guidance, despite ongoing brand expansion, reshapes e.l.f. Beauty’s broader investment narrative.

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e.l.f. Beauty Investment Narrative Recap

To own e.l.f. Beauty, you need to believe its value-focused, socially driven brands can keep winning shelf space and consumer attention, even through volatility. The latest revenue miss and softer full year guidance have clearly weakened the near term sentiment catalyst, while highlighting execution risk around converting high marketing and SG&A spend, including Rhode integration, into profitable growth.

Against that backdrop, the billion dollar Rhode acquisition, with Hailey Bieber staying on as Chief Creative Officer after a record Sephora launch, is central. It ties directly into the key catalyst of expanding distribution and product assortments globally, but also magnifies the risk that elevated spending and integration costs may outpace revenue benefits if consumer demand slows.

Yet investors should also weigh how quickly higher tariffs or supply chain disruption could hit margins just as expectations are being reset...

Read the full narrative on e.l.f. Beauty (it's free!)

e.l.f. Beauty's narrative projects $2.3 billion revenue and $294.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires 19.1% yearly revenue growth and roughly a $196.7 million earnings increase from $97.8 million today.

Uncover how e.l.f. Beauty's forecasts yield a $115.43 fair value, a 46% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

ELF 1-Year Stock Price Chart
ELF 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Sixteen members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see e.l.f. Beauty’s fair value anywhere between about US$15 and US$153 per share, with many estimates clustering below US$85. When you set those views against the recent earnings miss and lowered guidance, it underlines how important it is to compare differing expectations about the company’s ability to turn brand expansion into sustained, profitable growth.

Explore 16 other fair value estimates on e.l.f. Beauty - why the stock might be worth as much as 93% more than the current price!

Build Your Own e.l.f. Beauty Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.