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Assessing Suncor Energy (TSX:SU) Valuation After Early Achievement Of 2024 Performance Targets

Simply Wall St · 5d ago

Suncor Energy (TSX:SU) is back in focus after announcing it met its 2024 Investor Day performance targets a year early, supported by record 2025 safety, production and refining utilization metrics.

See our latest analysis for Suncor Energy.

That early achievement message is landing in a market where Suncor’s share price momentum has been steady rather than explosive, with a 9.61% 90 day share price return and a 222.83% five year total shareholder return. This suggests longer term holders have seen much stronger gains than recent buyers.

If you are looking beyond integrated energy names, this could be a useful moment to scan for opportunities among aerospace and defense stocks that may be reacting differently to the same macro currents.

With Suncor trading at CA$62.48 and an indicated intrinsic value at a meaningful discount, alongside a single digit gap to the average analyst target, you have to ask: is there still a mispricing here, or is the market already baking in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 6.3% Undervalued

Against Suncor Energy's last close of CA$62.48, the most followed narrative anchors on a fair value estimate of about CA$66.70, framing the current gap as modest but meaningful.

Ongoing reductions in turnaround and operating costs, alongside structural CapEx cuts driven by operational excellence, interval extensions, and automation are setting a new baseline for higher operating margins and improved free cash flow in future years. Consistently record-high upstream production, refining throughput, and product sales volumes supported by operational reliability and debottlenecking position Suncor to fully capture the benefits of long-term global energy demand growth, translating to stable or rising revenues over time.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what sits behind that uplift in fair value? The narrative leans heavily on resilient revenues, firm margins, and a future earnings multiple that assumes investors keep paying up for consistency.

Result: Fair Value of $66.70 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, that uplift story still runs into two big risks: tougher carbon and regulatory costs on oil sands, and the chance long term fossil fuel demand weakens.

Find out about the key risks to this Suncor Energy narrative.

Build Your Own Suncor Energy Narrative

If that view does not quite fit with how you see Suncor, you can review the same data yourself and shape a custom narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Suncor Energy research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If you only stick with one company, you could miss other opportunities that better fit your goals, risk comfort, or time horizon right now.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.