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A Look At Delcath Systems (DCTH) Valuation After New Phase 3 FOCUS Subgroup Data On HEPZATO KIT

Simply Wall St · 3d ago

Delcath Systems (DCTH) is back in focus after publishing detailed subgroup analyses from its phase 3 FOCUS study on HEPZATO KIT in unresectable metastatic uveal melanoma, helping refine how clinicians view efficacy and safety across different patient groups.

See our latest analysis for Delcath Systems.

The publication arrives after a mixed stretch for Delcath Systems, with a 30 day share price return of 6.85% and a 90 day share price return decline of 5.86%. The 3 year total shareholder return is very large at around 3x, despite a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 15.04%.

If this kind of clinical update has caught your attention, it could be worth widening the lens to see how other healthcare stocks are priced and performing right now.

With HEPZATO KIT already approved and fresh FOCUS subgroup data in hand, Delcath now sits with a value score of 4 and an analyst target well above its last close. This raises the question of whether the stock is still mispriced or whether expectations for future growth are already reflected in the current price.

Most Popular Narrative: 57.1% Undervalued

With Delcath Systems last closing at $10.45 and the most followed narrative pointing to a fair value more than double that, the gap between price and expectations is wide enough to make the underlying assumptions worth a closer look.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $24.333 for Delcath Systems based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $31.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $21.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue ramp and margin shift could support that kind of valuation gap, and what profit multiple it leans on in the later years? The narrative is built on aggressively rising earnings, expanding profitability and a lower future P/E than many peers, all pulled back to today using a specific discount rate. If you want to see exactly how those pieces fit together, the full storyline puts the numbers front and center.

Result: Fair Value of $24.33 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this hinges on HEPZATO and CHEMOSAT adoption keeping pace with expectations, and on pricing pressures, particularly from 340B and NDRA discounts, not eroding margins too sharply.

Find out about the key risks to this Delcath Systems narrative.

Build Your Own Delcath Systems Narrative

If you are not fully aligned with this view or prefer to lean on your own work, you can stress test the assumptions yourself, tweak the story, and build a custom thesis in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Delcath Systems.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Delcath has sparked your interest, do not stop here. Widening your watchlist with fresh ideas can help you spot opportunities you might otherwise miss.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.