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Assessing TMX Group (TSX:X) Valuation After Steady Share Price Momentum

Simply Wall St · 5d ago

TMX Group (TSX:X) is back on investor radars after recent share price gains, with the stock finishing the latest session at CA$52.31 and prompting fresh interest in its role at the centre of Canadian capital markets.

See our latest analysis for TMX Group.

The recent 1 day share price return of 1.32% fits into a steady pattern, with a 30 day share price return of 2.03% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 20.61%. This suggests momentum has been gradually building rather than spiking on a single headline.

If TMX Group’s move has caught your eye, it could be a good moment to broaden your watchlist and hunt for fast growing stocks with high insider ownership that might be under the radar.

With TMX Group posting double digit annual revenue and net income growth and trading around CA$52 while the average analyst price target sits near CA$62, you have to ask: is there still a buying opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 4.8% Overvalued

According to Like, the narrative pegs TMX Group’s fair value at CA$49.90, slightly below the last close at CA$52.31. This frames the discussion that follows.

TMX Group is a stable, high-quality compounder with dependable cash flows, a wide moat, and disciplined management. It won’t deliver explosive returns, but it offers consistent value creation, resilience, and a growing stream of recurring data-driven revenue.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what earnings trajectory and margin profile sit behind that fair value range. The narrative leans heavily on recurring data revenue and a rich future earnings multiple. Want to see how those assumptions tie together.

Result: Fair Value of $49.9 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, weaker trading and IPO activity, or tougher competition and regulation, could challenge those cash flow assumptions and put pressure on that fair value story.

Find out about the key risks to this TMX Group narrative.

Build Your Own TMX Group Narrative

If you are not fully convinced by this storyline or would rather test the numbers yourself, you can build your own view in minutes by starting with Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding TMX Group.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If TMX Group is on your radar, do not stop there. Broaden your opportunity set by scanning other corners of the market that might fit your style.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.