To the annoyance of some shareholders, Guardforce AI Co., Limited (NASDAQ:GFAI) shares are down a considerable 27% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. The recent drop completes a disastrous twelve months for shareholders, who are sitting on a 78% loss during that time.
After such a large drop in price, Guardforce AI's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.4x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the Commercial Services industry in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios above 1.2x and even P/S above 4x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.
See our latest analysis for Guardforce AI
Revenue has risen at a steady rate over the last year for Guardforce AI, which is generally not a bad outcome. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is low because investors think this good revenue growth might actually underperform the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Guardforce AI, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the industry for P/S ratios like Guardforce AI's to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 4.4% gain to the company's revenues. Revenue has also lifted 9.8% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been respectable for the company.
This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 5.5% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.
With this in consideration, it's easy to understand why Guardforce AI's P/S falls short of the mark set by its industry peers. It seems most investors are expecting to see the recent limited growth rates continue into the future and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.
Guardforce AI's P/S has taken a dip along with its share price. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
As we suspected, our examination of Guardforce AI revealed its three-year revenue trends are contributing to its low P/S, given they look worse than current industry expectations. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
It is also worth noting that we have found 4 warning signs for Guardforce AI (2 are potentially serious!) that you need to take into consideration.
If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.