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Assessing Greif (GEF) Valuation After Recent Share Price Momentum And Packaging Growth Prospects

Simply Wall St · 4d ago

Greif (GEF) has caught investor attention after recent price moves, prompting a closer look at how its industrial packaging business, recent financial results, and current valuation metrics line up for long term holders.

See our latest analysis for Greif.

Greif’s recent 1 month share price return of 7.98% and 3 month share price return of 16.46% suggest building momentum. A 1 year total shareholder return of 23.07% points to steady compounding for patient holders.

If Greif’s move has you thinking more broadly about opportunities in materials and packaging, it can be worth scanning fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as a way to spot other potential long term compounders.

With Greif trading at $70.67, a value score of 4 and an estimated intrinsic discount of 71.32%, the key question is whether investors are seeing a genuine bargain here or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 4.2% Undervalued

Greif’s most followed valuation work places fair value at US$73.80, a touch above the recent US$70.67 close, framing the shares as modestly discounted rather than heavily mispriced.

The company's investment and expansion in polymer-based packaging (with strong end-market demand in agrochemicals, pharma, food & beverage, and flavor & fragrance) directly positions Greif to benefit from the ongoing expansion of global manufacturing, logistics, and e-commerce, supporting sustainable top-line revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of margin rebuild and future earnings power sit behind that fair value mark, and how cautious revenue assumptions still support it? The narrative lays out a detailed path that leans on earnings quality, mix shift and a lower future P/E multiple than many packaging peers typically trade on. If you want to see how those moving parts fit together into a single price anchor, the full story is worth a closer read.

Result: Fair Value of $73.80 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, that storyline can crack if demand in key polymer end markets weakens or if cost cuts and portfolio tweaks stop feeding through to margins as expected.

Find out about the key risks to this Greif narrative.

Build Your Own Greif Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or prefer to test your own assumptions, the tools are available for you to build a custom view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Greif research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If you only stop with Greif, you risk missing other setups that could suit your style, so keep your research flowing and widen the opportunity set.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.