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Should Lilly’s Nimbus Obesity Drug Alliance Reshape How Eli Lilly (LLY) Investors View Its Pipeline Strategy?

Simply Wall St · 4d ago
  • Nimbus Therapeutics recently announced a multi-year research collaboration and exclusive worldwide license agreement with Eli Lilly to develop a novel oral obesity and metabolic disease treatment, with Nimbus eligible for US$55.00 million upfront and near-term milestones and up to about US$1.30 billion in longer-term payments plus tiered royalties.
  • The deal deepens Lilly’s bench in oral obesity therapies just as competition intensifies, allowing it to pair Nimbus’ computational chemistry strengths with its own GLP-1 portfolio and AI-driven discovery efforts.
  • We’ll now examine how this expanded oral obesity pipeline, built through the Nimbus partnership, could influence Eli Lilly’s existing investment narrative.

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Eli Lilly Investment Narrative Recap

To own Eli Lilly today, you need to believe its GLP-1 obesity and diabetes franchise can keep driving growth while it manages intense competition, pricing scrutiny, and pipeline risk. The Nimbus deal modestly strengthens the oral obesity story but does not change the key near term catalyst around orforglipron’s regulatory timeline, nor the central risk of overreliance on a small group of blockbuster incretin drugs.

The most relevant recent announcement here is Lilly’s fast tracked oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron, which is expected to receive a U.S. regulatory decision by March 2026. The Nimbus collaboration now sits alongside orforglipron in an expanded oral obesity toolkit, adding longer term optionality around small molecule approaches while near term investor attention remains firmly on regulatory outcomes and payer coverage for existing GLP-1 therapies.

But against all this optimism, investors should be aware that rising competitive threats to Lilly’s GLP 1 franchise could ...

Read the full narrative on Eli Lilly (it's free!)

Eli Lilly's narrative projects $89.1 billion revenue and $34.2 billion earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Eli Lilly's forecasts yield a $1093 fair value, a 3% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

LLY 1-Year Stock Price Chart
LLY 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Forty members of the Simply Wall St Community value Eli Lilly between US$650 and roughly US$1,430 per share, underscoring how far opinions can diverge. As you weigh those views, remember that Lilly’s dependence on a handful of GLP 1 driven products leaves its current performance closely tied to competitive and reimbursement developments in obesity care.

Explore 40 other fair value estimates on Eli Lilly - why the stock might be worth 39% less than the current price!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.