Huajin Securities: The rapid rise of the commercial aerospace industry focuses on lightweight and efficient space photovoltaic technology

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huajin Securities released a research report saying that domestic and foreign space computing power has entered the large-scale implementation stage. Research and Markets data shows that the global in-orbit data center market will reach 39.09 billion US dollars (10-year compound growth rate of 67.4%) in 2035. The rigid demand for “lightweight and high-efficiency” energy due to high energy consumption characteristics is in deep line with the technical advantages of space photovoltaics. Gallium arsenide batteries are the core support for current space photovoltaics with mature technology and stability; at the same time, with the rapid increase in the number of satellites, in-orbit data requirements, and space-based computing capabilities, segmentation opportunities are highlighted, and p-type ultra-thin HJT and perovskite photovoltaic products have potential for future growth.

The main views of Huajin Securities are as follows:

Space computing power is being implemented on a large scale, and PV demand is expanding simultaneously

In May of this year, China launched the world's first space computing constellation into orbit. In December, SpaceX launched the Nvidia H100 GPU into space. Musk revealed a technically feasible path: plans to launch 100 gigawatts of solar-powered artificial intelligence satellites into orbit every year; Beijing also proposed the construction of a space data center with more than gigawatts of power in the 700-800 km morning and sunset orbit, clarifying the “three-step” strategy for 2025-2035, further upgrading the scenario from concept to long-term planning; at the same time, technology giants accelerate the layout — Bezos predicts the next 10-20 thousand A megawatt space data center will be built. These actions have pushed space computing power into the large-scale landing stage.

Research and Markets data shows that in 2035, the global in-orbit data center market will reach 39.09 billion US dollars (ten-year compound growth rate of 67.4%), and its high energy consumption characteristics closely match the technical advantages of space photovoltaics — low-Earth orbit satellites account for 60%-70% of daylight hours, 5,000 to 6000 hours of annual use, and more than 8,000 hours of use in synchronous orbit; and space photovoltaics have outstanding radiation resistance. In 15 years of the space environment, the International Space Station The efficiency of the panel remains 88%. This characteristic is highly compatible with the needs of the space scene and directly opens up space for commercialization of photovoltaics in the space scene.

Gallium arsenide batteries are the core support of current space photovoltaics with mature technology and stability

Gallium arsenide battery applications are highly concentrated in the aerospace sector, accounting for more than 90%, and the global market size will reach 425 million US dollars in 2024. According to QYR (Hengzhou Bozhi) statistics, it is expected to increase to 590 million US dollars in 2031, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.3%. The Chinese market is about 5 billion yuan in 2022 and is expected to exceed 12 billion yuan in 2025.

According to the connection type, gallium arsenide batteries are divided into single junction, double junction, three junction, and four junction types. Among them, three-junction solar cells dominate the market, accounting for more than 90% of the market. A breakthrough has been achieved in conversion efficiency, and the six-junction laminated battery of the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory has achieved 47.1% conversion efficiency under concentrated light conditions. At the same time, as technology advances, its cost is also gradually decreasing. For example, the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory's dynamic hydride gas phase decrystallization method is expected to reduce the cost of Group 35 solar cells to the range of 0.2 to 0.8 US dollars per watt. Overall, the gallium arsenide battery market is expected to expand further into new fields and applications as technology continues to advance and costs decrease.

Outstanding advantages of P-type ultra-thin heterojunction (HJT) thinning

In cost-sensitive and short-lived application scenarios such as low-orbit satellites, thinning batteries can reduce launch load and save fuel. P-type batteries have better radiation resistance than n-type batteries; compared to PERC batteries, p-type ultra-thin HJT is more suitable for thinning and flexible structures, which can reduce transmission costs and improve space utilization.

Currently, mainstream PERC batteries are about 130 μm thick, and the P-type ultra-thin HJT batteries delivered by Dongfang Risheng are about 50-70 μm thick, and there is still potential for further thinning. Up to now, Dongfang Risheng's p-type ultra-thin heterojunction products have been shipped for 3 years, and tens of thousands of pieces have been shipped. Customers are distributed in Europe and America. The company's specialty products that have been delivered in batches all use crystalline silicon heterojunction technology. The company has actively developed R&D reserves for laminated battery technology. Currently, the perovskite/crystalline silicon heterojunction laminated solar cells developed by the company's Global Photovoltaic Research Institute have achieved a conversion efficiency of 30.99%. The company is promoting technical cooperation with leading perovskite companies for perovskite/crystalline silicon heterojunction laminated batteries to lay out the next generation of high-efficiency battery technology.

Perovskite's performance advantages break through traditional space photovoltaics bottlenecks

With quantifiable performance advantages, perovskite solar cells are breaking the limitations of traditional space photovoltaic technology and becoming the core energy solution for space computing power requirements. Judging from the core performance, its lightweight and high efficiency characteristics are particularly prominent, and the flexible form can prepare a “expandable solar array”, which can greatly reduce spacecraft launch costs. At the same time, the efficiency of perovskite single-junction batteries has exceeded 25%. The all-perovskite tandem structure attenuates only 10% under 10¹ ² proton/cm² dose of space radiation, and the radiation resistance is superior to traditional III-V multi-junction batteries.

A team from the Institute of Semiconductors of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has developed a prototype perovskite battery with a photoelectric conversion efficiency of 27.2% and improved stability. GCL Optoelectronics's Kunshan GW-class production line launched large-scale components on October 29; the world's first GW class production line has been put into operation; Sienna Optoelectronics released 2.88m² and 509.21W certified components, marking the progress of the technology towards large-scale commercialization; Renshuo Solar and Ningde Times will also follow the GW line for production in 2026.

Investment advice

With the rapid growth in the number of satellites, in-orbit data demand, and space-based computing capabilities, segmentation opportunities are highlighted. P-type ultra-thin HJT and perovskite photovoltaic products have potential for future growth. It is recommended to track the targets tied to the implementation of new technology and scenarios, and focus on Dongfang Risheng (300118.SZ), Aerospace Hongtu (688066.SH), GCL Technology (03800), Junda (002865.SZ), Tuori Xinneng (002865.SZ), and the leader in laminated line equipment, Maiwei Shares (3001.75SZ)), Jiejia Weichuang (300724 .SZ), Jingshan Light Machinery (000821.SZ), key material supplier Longhua Technology (300263.SZ), etc.

The gallium arsenide route is currently the main link. It is recommended to focus on related companies with leading market share, such as Qianzhao Optoelectronics (300102.SZ) and San'an Optoelectronics (600703.SH). In addition, benefiting from space computing power and the expansion of commercial space scenarios, it is recommended to focus on the progress of supporting enterprises in the relevant industry chain, and it is recommended to focus on Sirui New Materials (688102.SH), Oriental Tantalum (000962.SZ), Shuangliang Energy Saving (600481.SH), and Goldwind Technology (002202.SZ).

Risk Alerts

Technological development falls short of expectations; raw material prices fluctuate; industry competition intensifies.