China Post Securities: Maintaining the IFBH (06603) “Buy” Rating Company to Promote Brand Building and Operational Improvement

The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Post Securities released a research report saying that the IF coconut water brand under IFBH (06603) is expected to continue to grow rapidly in 2025, and the overall growth rate of the industry is leading the soft drink circuit. The company's channels continue to expand and sign new agents, while the cost side is being optimized. In terms of brand building, market awareness is strengthened through contract ambassadors, new product promotion, and increased marketing investment. Maintain a “buy” rating.

The main views of China Post Securities are as follows:

The brand IF Coconut Water continues to perform well, and the company simultaneously promotes brand building and operation improvement

IF Coconut Water is expected to maintain a relatively rapid growth trend in 25 years, leading the industry average; Innococo's sales declined in the first half of '25, and order delivery was affected by channel adjustments in the second half of the year. It is expected to return to normal by the end of the year after the rectification, so the bank expects market performance to continue to be under pressure in the second half of the year. The company's 25Q3 market share has increased compared to the same period last year. Currently, dealer inventory is within a reasonable and controllable normal range. From an industry perspective, the coconut water industry is expected to grow at an overall rate of 27.18% in 2025, which is higher than the overall growth rate of the soft drink industry of 7.78%, carbonated drinks of 5.52%, packaged water of 12%, and energy drinks of 10%. The coconut water industry as a whole is still in a period of rapid growth.

Channels continue to expand, and network expansion has achieved remarkable results

The company signed a contract with COFCO Mingzhuang Hui in September '25. It is expected that there will still be agent expansion plans in the future. The channel layout will continue to be strengthened, and channel expansion is expected to continue in '26. On the cost side, with the continuous expansion of production capacity at the place of origin in recent years, the cost of purchasing coconuts has declined in '25. It is expected that in '26, in addition to continuing this favorable cost optimization, more measures will be taken to improve supply chain operation efficiency and further optimize the cost structure. On the brand side, in September, Innococo's official spokesperson (Times Youth Group) launched new products simultaneously and cooperated in carrying out a series of marketing and promotion activities. Brand building work will continue to be promoted in '26. It is planned to increase resource investment on media platforms such as Xiaohongshu and WeChat accounts, carry out consumer education-related work, and continuously strengthen brand market awareness. During the Expo in November '25, the company officially signed a memorandum of cooperation and announced that it would settle in Qingpu, Shanghai and set up the IF brand headquarters in China. The construction of the Shanghai office and team formation will gradually advance in '26.

The company announced a repurchase plan, believing that the current stock price does not reflect its intrinsic value. To enhance shareholder value, the company plans to repurchase no more than 5% of the company's total issued share capital on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange from time to time within the next six months.

Profit prediction and investment advice

The bank expects the company to achieve revenue of 183.86/256.20/322.21 million dollars (12.87/17.93/22.26 billion yuan) in 2025-2027, an increase of 16.63%/39.34%/25.77%; net profit to mother of 31.84/51.30/67.42 million dollars (2.23/3.59/472 million yuan), a year-on-year increase of -4.43%/61.13%/31.41%, corresponding EPS of 0.12/0.19/0.25 (0.84 /1.35/1.77 yuan), corresponding to the current stock price PE is 8 times 18/11/8, maintaining the “buy” rating.

Risk warning: Food safety risks; new products fall short of expected risks.