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Moderna (MRNA) Valuation Check As mRNA Flu Vaccine Filings Open a New Respiratory Revenue Path

Simply Wall St · 4d ago

Moderna (MRNA) has filed for marketing authorization of its mRNA-1010 seasonal flu vaccine in the U.S., EU, Canada, and Australia, backed by Phase 3 data showing about 27% relative efficacy in adults 50 and older.

See our latest analysis for Moderna.

The flu filing has arrived alongside sharp short term share price momentum, with a 1 month share price return of 28.74% and a year to date gain of 15.55%. However, the 1 year total shareholder return of 24.97% and 3 year total shareholder return of 81.20% point to a much tougher longer term journey as investors reassess both growth prospects and risks.

If vaccine news has you thinking more broadly about healthcare, this could be a good moment to scan healthcare stocks for other companies shaping the sector.

With Moderna shares up sharply in the past month but still carrying a 1 year total return decline of 24.97% and a 3 year drop of 81.20%, you have to ask: is this a reset opportunity, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 3% Undervalued

With Moderna last closing at US$35.66 against a narrative fair value of US$36.75, the gap is small but it still frames an upside case built on future execution and margin repair.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $44.25 for Moderna based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $198.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $15.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what sits behind that tight fair value band and wide price target spread? Revenue rebuild, margin reset, and a punchy future earnings multiple sit at the core of this narrative. Curious how those pieces are stitched together into a single valuation story?

Result: Fair Value of $36.75 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, there is still the risk that weaker demand for COVID and respiratory vaccines, or an adverse litigation outcome, could undercut the earnings recovery this story leans on.

Find out about the key risks to this Moderna narrative.

Build Your Own Moderna Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or want to stress test your own assumptions, you can build a personalized Moderna storyline in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward investors are optimistic about regarding Moderna.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Moderna has you rethinking your watchlist, this is the moment to widen the net and line up a few fresh contenders for your next deep dive.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.