WEBULL

Evaluating STAG Industrial (STAG) After Recent Share Price Pullback And Intrinsic Value Discount

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

STAG Industrial (STAG) has drawn attention after recent trading data showed mixed returns, including a one-month pullback alongside positive past three-month and one-year total returns, prompting investors to reassess its industrial REIT profile.

See our latest analysis for STAG Industrial.

That recent one month share price pullback sits against a higher 90 day share price return and a 1 year total shareholder return of 17.35%, which suggests momentum has cooled but not reversed for investors who have stayed the course.

If STAG Industrial has you rethinking your income and property exposure, it could be a good moment to broaden your search with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With STAG Industrial trading at $37.31, an indicated 10% discount to analyst targets and a reported 30% intrinsic discount, the real question is whether this represents an undervalued industrial REIT or a stock that already reflects expectations for future growth in its current price.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 9.6% Undervalued

With STAG Industrial last closing at $37.31 against a narrative fair value of $41.25, the current setup hinges on how its earnings power evolves.

Analysts expect earnings to reach $215.4 million (and earnings per share of $0.61) by about July 2028, down from $243.8 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $190.1 million.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a lower earnings path still supports a higher value? Revenue growth, margin shifts and a richer future earnings multiple are central to this narrative. The exact mix may surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $41.25 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, there are still clear pressure points, including longer lease up periods in some markets and the risk that large tenants keep consolidating into mega facilities.

Find out about the key risks to this STAG Industrial narrative.

Build Your Own STAG Industrial Narrative

If this take does not quite match your view, or you prefer to work from the raw numbers yourself, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes using Do it your way.

A great starting point for your STAG Industrial research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

Do not stop with one company when there are entire groups of stocks already filtered for you, ready to spark your next round of research.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.