WEBULL

Assessing Expeditors International Of Washington (EXPD) Valuation After Strong Recent Share Price Momentum

Simply Wall St · 3d ago

Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) is back on investors’ radar after recent trading, with the stock closing at $157.50. That move sits against a backdrop of steady revenue and net income figures.

See our latest analysis for Expeditors International of Washington.

The recent 2.01% 1 day share price return sits alongside a 30.43% 90 day share price return and a 43.10% 1 year total shareholder return. This suggests momentum has been building over both shorter and longer periods.

If Expeditors’ recent move has you thinking about what else is working in freight linked names, it could be a good time to look across aerospace and defense stocks as a broader hunting ground.

With Expeditors posting steady revenue and net income alongside strong recent returns, the key question is whether a share price above the average analyst target and intrinsic estimates signals an overheat or a genuine opportunity that markets are pricing for future growth.

Price-to-Earnings of 25x: Is it justified?

On a P/E of 25x at the last close of US$157.50, Expeditors International of Washington screens as expensive relative to both its peer group and wider logistics benchmarks.

The P/E ratio compares the current share price to earnings per share, so a higher P/E effectively means you are paying more today for each dollar of current earnings. For a mature logistics business, that usually implies the market is building in expectations around earnings resilience, quality or future profit growth.

Here, the signals point to the market paying a premium for those earnings. Statements flag high quality earnings and a high Return on Equity of 37.1%, alongside earnings growth of 15.4% over the past year, even though longer term profit trends over five years have been weaker and forward earnings growth is forecast to be modest. That kind of mix can justify some uplift in the multiple, but the current P/E sits well above levels implied by fair value models.

Against the Global Logistics industry average P/E of 16.1x and a peer average of 19.9x, Expeditors stands on a clearly richer multiple. It also trades above an estimated fair P/E of 14.4x, setting a valuation gap that the market could shift toward if sentiment or earnings expectations cool.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for Expeditors International of Washington

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 25x (OVERVALUED)

However, a share price sitting above both analyst targets and intrinsic estimates, together with only modest recent revenue and net income growth, leaves little room if sentiment turns.

Find out about the key risks to this Expeditors International of Washington narrative.

Another Take on Value

Our DCF model pegs Expeditors International of Washington at a fair value of about US$143.46 per share, which sits below the current US$157.50 price. On this view, the stock screens as overvalued, so the real question is what could keep the market comfortable with that premium?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

EXPD Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026
EXPD Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Expeditors International of Washington for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 877 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Expeditors International of Washington Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a full Expeditors thesis in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Expeditors International of Washington research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Expeditors has caught your eye, do not stop there. The real edge often comes from lining up a few strong ideas side by side.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.