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A Look At Schaeffler (XTRA:SHA0) Valuation After Strong Recent Share Price Gains

Simply Wall St · 5d ago

Schaeffler (XTRA:SHA0) shares have caught investor attention after recent price moves, with the stock showing strong trailing returns and double digit gains over the past month and over the past three months.

See our latest analysis for Schaeffler.

The latest share price of €8.665 sits alongside a 30 day share price return of 13.56% and a 90 day share price return of 36.46%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 111.49% points to strong momentum rather than a short lived bounce.

If Schaeffler’s recent move has you rethinking the auto space, it could be a good time to scan auto manufacturers for other ideas on your radar.

So after a sharp 1 year total return and solid recent gains, is Schaeffler’s current €8.665 share price still leaving room for value based on its fundamentals, or is the market already pricing in any future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 22% Overvalued

Schaeffler’s most followed narrative sees fair value at €7.10 per share compared with the latest close at €8.665, setting up a valuation gap that hinges on future earnings power and margin repair.

The analysts have a consensus price target of €5.536 for Schaeffler based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €7.5, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €4.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what justifies a higher fair value than that consensus target? The narrative leans on revenue growth, margin rebuild and a compressed future P/E to make its case.

Result: Fair Value of €7.10 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, earnings pressure from a €1,094m loss and heavy exposure to European automakers could still upset the margin rebuild that this valuation narrative relies on.

Find out about the key risks to this Schaeffler narrative.

Another View: DCF Points to Deep Value

While the popular narrative sees Schaeffler as 22% overvalued at €8.665 versus a €7.10 fair value, our DCF model presents a different view, with a fair value estimate of €20.71 per share and the stock trading at a 58.2% discount. When one model indicates downside risk and another suggests a large upside gap, which set of assumptions do you find more convincing?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

SHA0 Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026
SHA0 Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026

Build Your Own Schaeffler Narrative

If you are not on board with this view or prefer to stress test the numbers yourself, you can build a fresh narrative in minutes by starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Schaeffler research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Schaeffler is on your radar, this is a good moment to widen your watchlist and explore other opportunities before the market potentially moves in a different direction.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.