The main point of investing for the long term is to make money. Furthermore, you'd generally like to see the share price rise faster than the market. But Philip Morris CR a.s. (SEP:TABAK) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 23% over five years, which is below the market return. Zooming in, the stock is up a respectable 13% in the last year.
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Philip Morris CR's earnings per share are down 3.7% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.
With EPS falling, but a modestly increasing share price, it seems that the market was probably too pessimistic about the stock in the past. Having said that, if the EPS falls continue we'd be surprised to see a sustained increase in share price.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Dive deeper into Philip Morris CR's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Philip Morris CR's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Philip Morris CR the TSR over the last 5 years was 81%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
Philip Morris CR shareholders gained a total return of 21% during the year. But that was short of the market average. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 13% per year over five year. This suggests the company might be improving over time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Philip Morris CR has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
But note: Philip Morris CR may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Czech exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.