China Post Securities 2026 Banking Strategy: Structural Opportunities from a New Starting Point

The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Post Securities released a research report saying that it is expected that the insurance industry may add more than 2 trillion yuan in 2026. Demand for dividend assets that can provide dividend rates of 4% or more will gradually rise, and the appeal of large state-owned banks with steady operations will continue to be prominent; the economic vitality and credit asset quality of various provinces and cities will continue to be prominent; the economic vitality and credit asset quality of various provinces and cities will become important factors driving the differentiation of banking performance in various regions. It is recommended to focus on regional and local banks with outstanding economic growth endowments and solid credit asset quality.

China Post Securities's main views are as follows:

(1) Macroeconomic fundamentals

From a fiscal perspective, policies are more active, and the pace continues to advance; from a monetary perspective, moderate easing and smooth transmission to promote the low cost operation of comprehensive social financing; in terms of industrial investment, technological innovation and industrial upgrading may become the core main line, which is expected to drive bank financial asset investment companies to usher in a period of business explosion; the level of inflation may continue to recover moderately, and the “asset shortage” is still evolving.

(2) Industry core policy orientation

The central bank and other departments have increased their attention and care for banks' net interest spreads. It is expected that the narrowing of net interest spreads in the banking sector will be significantly reduced; the policy level will continue to provide support through measures such as loan interest rates, new policy financial instruments, and bank capital supplementation policies; and technology finance support policies for technical research in key industrial chains will be further improved.

(3) Profitability outlook for 2026

Corporate loan investment is expected to increase year-on-year and become the core leader of credit growth; marginal improvements in retail credit still need to observe policies related to increasing revenue, expanding consumption, and raising pensions; total credit expansion continues to slow down throughout the year; net interest spreads are expected to further bottom out and stabilize. It is expected that the space for net interest spreads to narrow further within 5 BP, and it is expected to become the bottom of bank interest spreads in 2026; as policies continue to be supported, the bank's revenue performance is expected to recover through quantitative price compensation during the migration of residents' wealth management structures; the bond market is expected to fluctuate between volume and price adjustments throughout the year; Mainly based on emotions, other non-interest income contributions account for Comparatively or downwards.

(4) 2026 Asset Quality Outlook

The pattern of stabilizing asset quality in the banking sector has been further consolidated. It is expected that the defective rate of public lines will remain low, and retail lines will still be in a risk exposure period; as pressure on net interest spreads eases, revenue performance may usher in marginal improvements, creating space to reduce provision release or increase provision withdrawals. The steady trend of bank provision coverage will be further confirmed.

(5) 2026 industry landscape outlook

The business differentiation of various types of banks may become the main trend in the development of the industry. The recovery in the revenue growth rate of major banks is more certain, and the business environment for small and medium-sized banks is more complicated; the imbalance in regional economic development makes the business performance of urban agricultural commercial banks deeply tied to regional endowments, and differences in regional economic vitality will become a core variable affecting the valuation and operating performance of urban agricultural commercial banks.

Risk warning:

Model calculation errors, deviations from reality, policy implementation fell short of expectations, external events worsened beyond expectations, and widespread exposure of non-performing assets.