It's not a stretch to say that Amiad Water Systems Ltd.'s (TLV:AMD) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.5x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" for companies in the Machinery industry in Israel, where the median P/S ratio is around 1x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.
View our latest analysis for Amiad Water Systems
We'd have to say that with no tangible growth over the last year, Amiad Water Systems' revenue has been unimpressive. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think this benign revenue growth rate might not be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. Those who are bullish on Amiad Water Systems will be hoping that this isn't the case, so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Amiad Water Systems, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Amiad Water Systems' to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's top line as the year before. Likewise, not much has changed from three years ago as revenue have been stuck during that whole time. So it seems apparent to us that the company has struggled to grow revenue meaningfully over that time.
Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 18% shows it's noticeably less attractive.
With this in mind, we find it intriguing that Amiad Water Systems' P/S is comparable to that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.
It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that Amiad Water Systems' average P/S is a bit surprising since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, the probability of a share price decline will become quite substantial, placing shareholders at risk.
You need to take note of risks, for example - Amiad Water Systems has 3 warning signs (and 2 which are a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Amiad Water Systems, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.