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Assessing Kraft Heinz (KHC) Valuation As Kraft Hockeyville Marks Its 20th Anniversary

Simply Wall St · 4d ago

Kraft Heinz (KHC) is drawing fresh attention after highlighting the 20th anniversary of its Kraft Hockeyville program, which features a larger prize pool and expanded regional participation across Canadian communities.

See our latest analysis for Kraft Heinz.

While Kraft Hockeyville keeps the brand in the spotlight, Kraft Heinz shares have been under pressure, with a 1-year total shareholder return of 16.3% decline and a 3-year total shareholder return of 35.5% decline, signaling fading momentum despite recent community focused initiatives.

If this has you thinking beyond packaged foods, it could be a good moment to widen your search with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership and spot companies where growth and insider conviction line up.

With Kraft Heinz shares lagging over 1 and 3 years, yet trading at a discount to analyst targets and some models of intrinsic value, you have to ask: is this a reset level that offers upside, or is the market already pricing in all the growth ahead?

Most Popular Narrative: 13.3% Undervalued

With Kraft Heinz last closing at US$23.51 against a narrative fair value of US$27.13, the current gap is all about what future earnings power looks like.

Ongoing portfolio optimization divesting non-core brands and reinvesting into high-margin segments and key power brands should lead to structurally higher operating margins and improved profitability in future periods. Continued disciplined investment in marketing and the Brand Growth System, especially in North America retail, is already showing performance improvement and is expected to stabilize and eventually reaccelerate top line revenue while maintaining pricing power in an environment of rising consumer price sensitivity.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of margin rebuild and earnings path need to play out to back that fair value and discount rate? The full narrative lays out the revenue slope, the profit swing, and the valuation multiple that have to line up for Kraft Heinz to close that gap.

Result: Fair Value of $27.13 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, there are still pressure points, including weaker North America volumes and inflation driven cost headwinds, that could keep margins and revenue trends under strain.

Find out about the key risks to this Kraft Heinz narrative.

Build Your Own Kraft Heinz Narrative

If you look at the numbers and come to a different conclusion, or simply prefer to weigh the data yourself, you can build a custom story for Kraft Heinz in just a few minutes with Do it your way

A great starting point for your Kraft Heinz research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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If Kraft Heinz has you reassessing where you put your money, do not stop here. Widen your watchlist now and give yourself more options to compare.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.